The world economy loses trillions in the years after El Niño

The economic consequences of The boy they can persist several years after the phenomenon itself and cost billions in lost income worldwide, indicates a study published today by Science.

In years when it occurs, El Niño triggers far-reaching climate changes that cause devastating floods, crop-killing droughts, plummeting fish populations and a surge in tropical diseases.

With the forecast that El Niño will return this year, a team from Dartmouth College (USA) publishes a study that is one of the first to evaluate its long-term costs and indicates losses that are much higher than those estimated by previous research.

The team used models and examined global economic activity in the decades following the El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98, finding a “persistent signature” slowdown in economic growth more than five years later.

Globally, global revenue losses of $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion, respectively, can be attributed to the effects of El Niño in the half-decade after each of these two events studied, most of it at the expense of of the poorest nations in the tropics.

The researchers project global economic losses in the 21st century to reach $84 trillion, as climate change could amplify the frequency and intensity of El Niño, even if current commitments to reduce carbon emissions are met, they say. Darthmouth College in a statement.

Researchers estimate that this year’s El Niño phenomenon could slow the global economy by as much as $3 trillion by 2029.

“We can say with certainty that societies and economies do not recover on their own,” said Christopher Callahan, a signatory to the study, adding that his data suggest that a post-El Niño recession can last up to 14 years, if not longer.

“In the tropics and in places affected by El Niño, growth is retarded for at least five years,” explained. “The aggregate price of these events has never been fully quantified: you have to add up all depressed growth in the future, not just when the event occurs.”

The study indicates that the events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 caused the US Gross Domestic Product to be about 3% lower in 1988 and 2003 than it would have been but for them.

However, the GDP of tropical coastal nations like Peru and Indonesia it was lower by more than 10% that same year.

The global pattern of the effect of El Niño on the climate and prosperity of different countries “reflects the unequal distribution of wealth and climate risk, not to mention the responsibility of climate change, around the world,” said study author Justin Mankin, from the same educational center.

El Niño added “It amplifies the broader inequities of climate change, disproportionately affecting the least resilient and prepared among us.”

Source: EFE