The Institute of Economics and Business Development (IEDEP) of the Lima Chamber of Commerce (CCL) aligned itself with the other institutions and revised downward the growth of the Peruvian economy for 2023, from 2.4% to only 2%. This lower projection is supported by the meager performance of the Domestic Gross Product (GDP) during the first quarter, which was impacted by social conflicts and natural phenomena.
Óscar Chávez, head of the IEDEP of the CCL, explains that the 2% growth would be explained by the recovery of the Mining and Hydrocarbons sector, which is expected to grow 5.7%an item that contributed 11% of GDP in 2022 and whose dynamism has been threatened by social conflicts.
Four sectors slow down
According to the IEDEP of the CCL, this low projection is also supported by the slowdown in growth of four economic sectors. In detail, the agricultural sector would only have an advance of 1.9% compared to the 4.3% registered in 2022. While the Services item would expand 2.3%, considering that in the first two months of the year Telecommunications, Financial and Insurance had a negative performance.
“This estimate is based on the decrease in virtuality due to the return of normal work and educational activities and the cessation of government financial support programs. In addition, the Lodging and Restaurants (tourism) item has not yet consolidated its recovery post-pandemic due to the social problems in the interior of the country and the natural phenomena”, remarked Chávez.
The Commerce sector would also have a meager advance of 2.2% that is far from the 3.3% obtained last year. In the IEDEP analysis, this item has been impacted by the increase in interest rates and lower consumer confidence. In this line, the sales of the wholesale, retail and automotive trade would be below 5% in the rest of the year.
Meanwhile, the Construction it would go from growing 3% in 2022 to recording an advance of barely 1.4% at the end of 2023. In the case of Manufacturing, its growth last year was 1% and, by 2023, it is projected at 1.6 %.
“We must remember that these sectors, along with Constructionhave been affected by the rise in the reference rate for inflation control, which has made the cost of credit more expensive,” said Óscar Chávez.
Source: Larepublica
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