Taiwan or China? Paraguay’s dilemma shaking up the race for the presidency

In AssumptionTaipei, Washington and beijingdiplomats, civil servants and agricultural producers They are closely watching a close electoral race that could determine Paraguay’s future ties with Taiwan.

Paraguay will choose on April 30 between a pro-government presidential candidate who has pledged to maintain relations with Taiwan or an opponent who favors reaching out to China to boost the landlocked nation’s agricultural economy.

Pressure on the country to establish ties with China and open up the huge Asian market to soybeans and beef, its main exports, has been mounting, especially from the powerful agricultural sector.

“We are a food producing nation that is not selling to the world’s largest food buyer”, Pedro Galli, president of the Rural Association of Paraguay (ARP), which represents some 3,000 ranchers, told Reuters.

The decision to break ties would deal a heavy blow to Taiwan, which faces an uphill battle against the economic might of Beijing to maintain its 13 allies around the world, and a new sign of China’s growing influence in Latin America.

Galli referred to the countries in the region that have opted for China and its huge market in recent years, such as Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Honduras was the last to switch sides in March.

“We are watching the party from the balcony”, Galli said, referring to the losses suffered by the agricultural sector in terms of exports. “Only us and the Guatemalans remain.”

Opposition candidate Efrain Alegre, who represents a center-left coalition, told Reuters in January and again in April that he would favor relations with China, the world’s biggest importer of beef and soybeans, if he became president.

“We will be where it is convenient, otherwise it would be a betrayal of the homeland”, Alegre said in a recent interview with Reuters. “How am I going to deny a relationship that is beneficial for all Paraguayans, a town that needs development, needs investment, needs industry?”.

The official candidate of the conservative Colorado Party, Santiago Peña, promised to maintain the ties. A multi-party delegation visited the island of Taiwan in February in an attempt to assuage the fears of its authorities.

The Taiwan government, which provides economic support to its allies, said last week that it was “perplexed” for the position assumed by the Paraguayan opposition and that it would do everything possible to maintain diplomatic ties with the country.

China has long claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory and does not have the right to establish state-to-state ties, a position that Taipei strongly rejects. Beijing demands that the countries with which it has ties recognize that position.

a matter of time

There is a feeling in diplomatic circles in Asunción that change is inevitable, regardless of the outcome of the elections.

“With Paraguay it is a question of when, not if (change happens)”, a senior European diplomat told Reuters, adding that pressures from the local business sector and the fragility of the global economy could drive Paraguay into the arms of China “in the next two years”.

Even if the ruling Colorado Party wins the election, its leaders may not have the same staunch support for Taiwan as current President Mario Abdo, whose father helped forge relations more than six decades ago.

“We are brother nations and we have a destiny togetherAbdo said during a visit to the island in February.

Paraguayan rancher Fernando Serrati, who grows corn, soybeans and raises cattle, said the country is “caught” in a diplomatic conflict that hurts producers and exports, and that China’s closed doors often mean a lower price for its products.

A severe drought that hit regional agricultural production, worsening global economic prospects and the start of the war in Ukraine that affected beef exports to Russia strengthened local sentiment in favor of China.

“We need to consider the real interests of our country and open up to the worldSerrati said.

Source: Reuters