How did Japan’s plans to create a “hydrogen society” fail?

At the time it was presented as the miraculous solution to the energy problems of Japan: create one “society of hydrogen” drastically increasing the use of this fuel in homes, vehicles and industry.

But Japan’s plan to expand the hydrogen market and cut greenhouse gas emissions has faced delays and criticism.

Coinciding with the meeting in Japan this weekend of the energy and environment ministers of the G7 countries, here is a balance of this strategy.

What happened to the plan?

Ultra-dependent on imports of fossil fuels and deprived of much of its nuclear park since the Fukushima catastrophe in 2011, Japan was the first country in the world to present a national hydrogen strategy in 2017.

On paper, this colorless and odorless gas has many advantages; it can be produced, stored and transported in large quantities, its potential applications are numerous and, above all, its combustion does not emit CO2.

The original plan bet a lot on hydrogen vehicles, of which Toyota and Honda were pioneers worldwide. It was expected that by 2030, 800,000 cars of this type would circulate in Japan.

But the first figures are not good. Cumulative sales of these vehicles in the country between the end of 2014 and the end of 2022 totaled less than 7,700 units.

Despite the aid for the purchase, these vehicles continue to be “very expensive”even compared to electric cars, which are falling in price, says Kentaro Tamura, an expert at the Japan-based Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES).

There is also a lack of hydrogen stations, which are expensive to install and operate, adds Tamura.

The results are better in terms of housing, but even so they are lower than the initial objectives.

Equipped with hydrogen-powered fuel cells, the homes produce electricity and heat. It is anticipated that this system called “enefarm” equip 5.3 million Japanese homes by 2030.

But until the end of December 2022, only 465,000 units have this system, that is, three times less than the target set for 2020 (1.4 million).

“The installation costs of this equipment are very high compared to alternative technologies such as heat pumps”says Tamura.

Why is this strategy criticized?

From the beginning, many experts were skeptical. The main criticism is that the development of a hydrogen supply chain has been neglected. “green”produced from decarbonized or renewable energy sources.

Japan initially bet on hydrogen “grey”whose production based on hydrocarbons (natural gas, coal, oil) emits greenhouse gases, and by hydrogen “blue”, which also comes from these fossil fuels, but whose CO2 emissions are captured and stored.

Europe, China and other countries are now advancing much faster in the use of green hydrogen, which at the moment is scarce and more expensive, but which is essential for the construction of a truly decarbonised society, affirms the Japanese think tank Renewable Energy Institute in a report published in 2022.

For its part, the Japanese government has just allocated the equivalent of just under $1.7 billion to a controversial project in Australia to produce hydrogen from coal and then export it to Japan. However, at the moment there are no guarantees that this project will result in hydrogen. “blue”.

How has the plan evolved?

The Japanese government plans to review its strategy by the end of May, but doubts about whether or not it is compatible with Japan’s goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 are unlikely to be dispelled.

Tokyo now evokes another possible application of hydrogen and ammonia (one of its derivatives): use them as fuel for gas and coal power plants. But it is also a controversial project because it is expensive and far from a true energy transition.

“Japan is the only G7 country” that promotes this track, which aims above all to “keep alive” the “twilight” sector of its thermal power plants, estimates Hirotaka Koike, head of Greenpeace in Japan.

Source: AFP