Venezuelans will go to the polling stations on Sunday, when more than 3,000 positions are disputed to governors, mayors and municipal councils, in the first measurement of forces since 2017 between the chavismo and the opposition, which had abstained from participating in past elections.
Why is voting important?
If the opposition suffers a total disaster in the regional elections, by losing the four governorships it won in 2017, it would be left in the worst of worlds to face the challenge of 2024, when presidential elections are scheduled.
Regional elections are a test to measure the bias of the National Electoral Council (CNE), The highest body of the Venezuelan elections controlled for many years by Chavismo, after including in May among its five main directors two opponents, who describe it as the most balanced board of directors of the CNE in 17 years.
Why is the opposition participating?
Frustration has grown within the opposition over the failure of four years of US sanctions that sought the removal of the illegitimate president from power. Nicolás Maduro. Due to the absence of the opposition in the last elections, the ruling Socialist Party controls all branches of the government.
The return of the opposition to an electoral contest took place at a time when talks were being held between delegations of government officials and opponents in Mexico, under the facilitation of Norway, to solve the political crisis. The negotiations were suspended after the extradition to the United States of the considered figurehead of Maduro, Alex Saab, on October 16.
What happens in the day?
Some 21 million Venezuelans are registered to vote, although participation is not mandatory and is expected to be low.
The more than 14,000 centers scheduled for voting must open at 6:00 a.m. on Sunday and until 6:00 p.m., when they close, unless there are voters in line.
Results are not expected until after midnight.
Will the elections be fair?
In the electoral event there will be an observation mission from the European Union (EU) that has not come to the country since 2006 and which is deployed in 22 of the 23 states of the Caribbean nation.
The EU mission, made up of about 100 observers, is expected to give its first opinion after 48 hours. The final report must be submitted after two months.
What is at risk?
For some analysts, the day is a turning point for opponents, whose leaderships and speeches have blurred in the last year, beyond maintaining the general idea that a change is required in the country’s government.
Opponent Juan Guaidó, recognized by the United States and its allies as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, is seen as the head of the fragmented movement.
“Whatever the electoral result, on November 22, the Venezuelan opposition has to seriously consider reorganizing its functional and strategic unity,” said Andrés Caleca, analyst and former president of the National Electoral Council (CNE) in 1999.
The opposition “even has to rethink its leadership. If it doesn’t, it will be swept away, ”he added.
What is the expected result?
With turnout expected to be low, the opposition will struggle to improve the four governorates it won in 2017, analysts say. The ruling Socialist Party is also expected to maintain its grip on key mayoralties, such as Caracas.
Maryhen Jiménez, a researcher associated with the Center for Latin America at the University of Oxford, said that “there is no formal coordination body in Venezuela for the opposition that allows it to be a real alternative to power. These elections are not proposed as a step to accumulate forces, on the contrary, it will be defeated ”.
And in that case after the elections “they can regroup and from the few mayors or governorships that can be won, from there to work the political muscle with a view to 2024” when the presidential elections are scheduled, Jiménez added.
How would the negotiations in Mexico turn out?
Critics and analysts say that the result of the regional elections can weaken or strengthen the sides when they return to the dialogue table in Mexico.
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Félix Plasencia indicated on November 8 in Moscow that the talks “are going well”, but did not give further details. The opposition has not commented on those approaches after the suspension announced by the government in October.
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