Chile was a regional model, but now voters want a change and don’t know which one

Chile has a certain reputation among its neighbors: a stable and serious country in a region of constant political upheaval and economic crisis. However, that identity is now at stake as the country heads to a polarized election on Sunday where the favorites are diametrically opposed.

According to the latest polls published up to 15 days before the elections, the favorites to get to the ballot are the conservative Jose Antonio Kast and the former leftist student leader Gabriel Boric, driven by voters demanding change since the massive protests two years ago that could now force the biggest political change in decades.

Both represent trends that differ from the so-called “30 years“Of center-left and center-right governments since 1990 – the historic Concertación and its opponents – that had power in the post-dictatorship era and that gave the country fame and stability.

“If the Boric versus Kast scenario emerges, it represents the most significant shift in the political paradigm since 1990.″ Nicholas Watson, an analyst at consulting firm Teneo, tells Reuters.

“It has not happened overnight, but it is part of the process that broke out in October 2019 and represents the contest between change versus continuity.”He added.

One of the candidates, supported by the Communist Party, wants to end the “neoliberal model”, Improve pensions, raise the minimum wage, among other measures. The other proposes reducing the size of the State, lowering taxes and at the same time boosting the economy, also pointing out that its focus is on “Social emergencies”.

And both have been questioned by analysts who consider them too optimistic in a context of high uncertainty, growing social demands encouraged by the social explosion, an overheated economy, rising inflation and the writing of a new Constitution.

“That there is a break, there is”Says political analyst Cristóbal Bellolio. Social protests are “a challenge to the official story of progress that Chile told itself and the rest of the world ”.

“Change”

In the last 30 years, Chile – one of the few OECD member countries in the region – strongly reduced poverty rates, opened its economy through trade agreements with dozens of markets, attracted investment and grew steadily.

World Bank indicators on the rule of law, regulation, governance and political stability show that Chile far outperforms neighbors such as Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Peru.

However, critics of this model say that growth and well-being did not reach everyone. The demands agglutinated in the wave of protests pointed to the deficiency of public services such as health and education or low pensions.

“Chile today urgently needs a change”, dice Light vergara, 37, assistant to an engineering company in Santiago who votes for Kast. “And while no candidate represents me 100%, Kast gives me some security”.

On Chile voting is voluntary and there are often high abstention rates. That, added to the ban on publishing polls in the two weeks before the elections, makes it difficult to anticipate results.

The candidates who follow Boric and Kast in the preferences are the former minister and Christian Democratic senator Yasna Provoste, the official Sebastian Sichel and the multiple-time center-left presidential candidate Marco Enriquez-Ominami. All are seen as continuators or reformers of the model.

Provoste is the letter of the old Concertación and Sichel the candidate of the ruling right. Neither has taken off in the polls.

But whoever comes to power will not have an easy scenario.

In a recent report, the Central Bank warned about the overheating of the economy and the risk of an eventual fourth partial withdrawal of pension funds, a measure that is currently being discussed in Congress. The uncertainty this year has intensified the capital outflow that began since the social outbreak, the agency said.

In addition to economic complexities, the world’s largest copper producer faces political challenges in the face of a presidential election that also includes a congressional election: Protests persist in Santiago, although with less force; the south is shaken by a conflict with communities of the Mapuche ethnic group and, in parallel, an assembly is drafting a new Constitution.

“The way Chile is viewed from abroad will depend on how the new Constitution is viewed and the extent to which it increases the State’s spending obligations.”Says Watson.

Matters related to private property, the autonomy of the Central Bank and fiscal policy will be analyzed “very close”By investors, he adds.

But Boric voters also mention, and expect, changes and transformations.

Romina Aliaga, a 28-year-old environmental engineer, says that the candidate’s program “is aligned with the improvements we need as a country, to be able to move forward and not back down on issues such as environmental policies, gender equality, abortion. These are matters that interest me a lot”.