The different scenarios for the world population towards 2050

A new projection estimates that the world’s population could peak at 9 billion people by mid-century, significantly lower than the latest leading population estimates, including those from the United Nations.

The study goes further and affirms that if the world gives a “giant leap” In investment in economic development, education and health, the world population could reach a maximum of 8.5 billion people in 2050.

The new projections are included in a study of the initiative earth4all for the Global Challenges Foundation.

To make these projections, the team used a new system dynamics model with two scenarios in this century.

In the first, “too little, too late”, the world continues to develop economically as in the last 50 years and many of the poorest countries are lifted out of extreme poverty.

In this scenario, the researchers calculate that the world population could peak at 8.6 billion in 2050, before falling to 7 billion in 2100.

In the second scenario, called “the giant leap”, the researchers estimate that the population will peak at 8.5 billion people around 2040 and decline to about 6 billion by the end of the century.

But that can only be achievedthrough an unprecedented investment” in the alleviation of poverty -particularly in education and health- together with an extraordinary turn in the policies of food and energy security, inequality and gender equality.

In this scenario, extreme poverty disappears within a generation (by 2060), with a marked impact on global demographic trends.

The authors believe that it differs from other major demographic projections in that they tend to downplay rapid economic development.

“We know that the rapid economic development of low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates. Fertility rates decline as girls access education and women become economically empowered and have access to better health care”, says Per Espen Stoknes, head of the Earth4All project and director of the Center for Sustainability at the Norwegian Business School.

“Few prominent models simultaneously simulate population growth, economic development, and their connections.“, Add Beniamino Callegarimember of the modeling team of Earth4All.

The analysis uses ten world regions, including sub-Saharan Africa, China, and the United States.

Currently, population growth is higher in some nations in Africa, such as Angola, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Nigeria, and in Asia, such as Afghanistan.

“If we assume that these countries adopt sound economic development policies, we can expect the population to peak sooner rather than later.”, reasons callegari.

The team also looked at the connection between population and the overreach of planetary boundaries, linked to Earth’s carrying capacity.

Contrary to popular myths, the team found that population size is not the primary driver of exceeding planetary boundaries, like the climate crisis, but that skyrocketing 10% footprint levels are what is destabilizing the planet. richest in the world

“The main problem of humanity is the luxury consumption of carbon and biosphere, not the population. The places where the population is increasing the fastest have extremely small environmental footprints per person compared to places that peaked in population many decades ago.“, he claimed Jorgen Randersof earth4all.

According to the team’s demographic projections, the entire population could achieve living conditions above the United Nations minimum level without significant changes in current development trends, provided resources were distributed equally.

The research also concludes that, at current population levels, it is possible for everyone to escape extreme poverty and exceed a minimum threshold for a dignified life with access to food, shelter, energy and other resources, although this requires a distribution (much more) equitable resources.

“A good life for all is only possible if the extreme use of resources by the wealthy elite is reduced”, concludes Randers.

Source: EFE