Coronavirus: why China maintains its goal of not registering any covid-19 infection

All over the world, people are getting used to life after confinement, with vaccines doing the heavy lifting against covid and the progressive lifting of restrictions. However, in China, where the pandemic began, a tough virus elimination policy remains.

A person walks into a five-star hotel to briefly ask for an address and ends up in quarantine for two weeks because a guest there had contact with the coronavirus.

A member of a high-speed train crew has a close relationship with someone who is infected and wagons full of passengers are quarantined for mass testing. At Shanghai Disneyland 33,863 visitors suddenly have to undergo massive tests because a visitor from the day before tested positive.

Welcome to the life of the country whose sole objective is back to zero covid times.

China was the first country to impose restrictions to combat this pandemic and will be one of the last to ease them.

When you talk to ordinary Chinese you see that many do not seem to care about the continuous and strict anti-covid measuresas long as they stay safe.

I asked a woman if China should open up faster and she said it would be better to wait until the pandemic is properly resolved “because safety comes first.”

Another, on her way home from work, told me that for the sake of social stability it would be better to keep the closures, as the virus has not been fully understood and vaccines will probably improve.

Until recently, other countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Singapore also reacted to each coronavirus outbreak as something that had to be completely eradicated in the community, ordering the closure of entire cities until the virus stopped spreading.

The goal was reach zero local transmissions.

However, two things changed this approach: one was the appearance of the Delta variant, much more difficult to control; and, the second and most important, was to achieve high levels of vaccination.

High vaccination rates mean that people can continue to contract COVID-19, but without having to go to the hospital.

As a result, the borders of other countries are opening up to international travel, while in the Asian giant visas for foreigners are still hard to come by and the Chinese have not yet had their passport renewed once it has expired.

In other places, people too “Live with the virus”. Not in China, as the country is focused on eliminating another Delta outbreak with the same zeal as before the vaccine.

If the official figures are accurate, there have been more than 1,000 local broadcasts since October.

And although the number is not that high, the spread is significant and extends to 21 provinces. This is important because even a couple of cases in China will trigger the same measures strict than hundreds or thousands of new infections.

Not a single infection is acceptable

Authorities have shown no intention of changing that approach, despite some Chinese scientists calling for a rethink.

One of them was the teacher Guan Yi, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong and a government advisor, who called for a move from mass nucleic acid testing (which detects infections) to mass antibody testing (which could help scientists understand the efficacy of vaccines).

In an interview with Phoenix TV, the scientist stated that, in the long term, there is no chance that the “zero covid” strategy will work in terms of achieving a complete elimination.

“The virus is permanent now”, said. “It is the same as the flu, which will circulate among humans for a long time.”

This concept will come as no surprise to the inhabitants of other countries, while in China the government has maintained its goal of returning to zero cases with each new wave of the virus.

The truth is changing this message will be difficult.

Asked how much protection Chinese vaccines could offer against variants of the coronavirus, Professor Guan said the answer should come from the vaccine producers.

Another question about the direction of Beijing was raised by the doctor Haung Yanzhong, of the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, who stated that a key problem is that vaccines cannot achieve what the Chinese government wants and that is why Beijing distrusts it.

“They don’t trust the efficacy of vaccines, their ability to prevent infections,” Haung told the BBC. “Because in reality not even the best vaccines can prevent infections, but the zero tolerance strategy says that we cannot accept a single infection,” he adds.

The doctor added that the Chinese government is in political and ideological trouble every time he tries to proclaim “his successes” to the people, he is far from completely controlling the broadcasts.

“The zero tolerance strategy is also part of the official narrative to claim the success of the Chinese model in response to the pandemic, but also the superiority of the Chinese political system. So if that strategy is abandoned and then it is seen that the cases increase significantly, it is known that this would lead people to question the model, ”he warns.

“A million reasons”

To all of the above is added the great desire among Chinese officials to celebrate big events looming in an environment free from any covid outbreak.

The most immediate are the Winter Olympic Games in February. The tickets have not been put on sale, but the objective is to have spectators in the stands.

In October 2022 it will be Five-Year Congress of the Communist Party, in which Xi Jinping is expected to start a historic third term.

Of course, there will always be something on the horizon.

Another – quite dark – interpretation of why the government maintains the elimination measure is that Xi Jinping and his administration are comfortable with the idea of reduce foreign influence in China and the pandemic has provided them with an excellent excuse to move in this direction.

In social networks, some messages from nationalists have denounced the international influence in the way of doing things “from China”.

To be sure, the governance emphasis here has shifted from a philosophy of “Reform and opening” to another that places the Communist Party at the center of everything and its leader Xi Jinping at its core.

As other countries have opened their borders, the BBC asked Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin about when it could do the same in his country.

According to him, China has been observing the experience of other countries and is focused on follow what science says to make your decisions in the light of the new variants that arise.

In any case, experts close to the rulers of this country do not indicate the imminent end of the infections. In fact, it’s the opposite.

A “too high” cost

The doctor Zhong Nanshan He is considered a kind of medical hero in China. As a specialist in respiratory medicine he rose to world fame in 2003 for refute the official line that minimized the severity of the Sars.

Today, people and officials listen to what he has to say.

In a recent interview, Zhong claimed that strict measures to overcome covid in China would be in place for “quite a long time.”

He added that a global death rate from covid-19 of the 2% it was too high for China to accept, even with vaccines in place. The cost of opening too quickly was not worth it, he said, adding that China would look at the experience of other countries with his plans to “live with covid”.

It is also important to note that Chinese officials can be quite conservative in their approach. They may plan to “reopen” the country again and just aren’t in a rush to do so.

Waiting is what many who want to enter or leave China will inevitably have to do.

While middle and upper class people lament the lack of freedom to move internationally, many citizens ordinary Chinese seem happy to allow the government to manage the situation if they stay healthy that way.

Meanwhile, mass testing, centralized quarantine, transportation controls, high-level surveillance, track and trace, as well as strict and localized closures, will continue to be an important part of life in China.