Economic recovery after ‘COVID zero’ will focus Chinese Legislative; here the agenda

The growth objective after abandoning the ‘zero COVID’ policy, the appointment of a new prime minister or the foreign policy slogans after the latest scuffles with the United States will star in the annual session of the National People’s Assembly (ANP, Legislative) that begins tomorrow in Beijing.

1. New appointments

Once Xi Jinping revalidated his position as General Secretary of the Communist Party (PCCh) in the last 20th Congress in October, the ANP is expected to formalize his third presidential term and as head of the Armed Forces, in addition to appointing a new team. of loyalists at the head of the Executive.

Li Qiang, Xi’s protégé and number two in the CCP, will be sworn in as the new prime minister, replacing Li Keqiang, while Foreign Minister Qin Gang, appointed in December 2022, will hold his first press conference with the increase in tensions with Washington or the war in Ukraine as a backdrop.

2. Post-COVID China

On the opening day of the conclave, the growth forecasts for the world’s second largest economy for 2023 will be announced. According to some analysts, it could be around 5% after growing 3% in 2022, one of the lowest rates in decades.

The authorities must also set a fiscal deficit target at a time when the country seeks to revitalize its economy after the impact of the ‘zero COVID’ policy, which last year heavily weighed on activity due to restrictions and strict confinements imposed due to the spread of the virus.

Analytics firm Trivium believes the new prime minister could offer signs pointing to “fewer restrictions and a more favorable environment for foreign investment” to stimulate market confidence.

3. Internal restructuring

The session of the Chinese Legislature could leave restructuring in various departments so that some powers could pass from the hands of the State Council (Executive) to bodies of the CCP, which would further entrench Xi’s power.

“Xi has already managed to get his protégés into key government posts. He will set himself up as an arbitrator when there are disagreements between them”, explains expert Dong Zhang, from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, to the South China Morning Post.

One of these restructurings, according to the Hong Kong press, could imply that the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of State Security, portfolios for Interior and Intelligence affairs and dependent on the Executive, become part of a new institution under the direct command of the CCP.

4. Tensions with the United States

Analysts also expect Xi to redouble his calls for “technological self-sufficiency” and to continue his ideological struggle by presenting China’s development model as an alternative to a West that the Asian country says it perceives to be in decline.

All this in a context of recent tensions with the United States, with economic and diplomatic confrontations in various areas, such as the situation in Taiwan, trade and technological sanctions or the most recent episode of “spy” balloons.

The new foreign minister is expected to appear publicly to explain the keys to the portfolio, which recently published a report accusing the United States of “use multiple methods to maintain your world supremacy”, what he considers “a global risk”.

5. Defense and Taiwan

The ANP will also announce the growth of the country’s Defense budget – in 2022 it was 7.1% and, in 2021, 6.8% – amid tensions in the South China Sea and an eye on Taiwan , an island that Beijing claims.

Tensions between Beijing and Taipei escalated last summer due to the visit of the then president of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi, strongly condemned by the Chinese authorities.

This same week, the Chinese Army protested the flight of a US military reconnaissance plane over the Taiwan Strait which, according to Beijing, poses “a threat to regional peace and stability”.

6. Social legislation

The ANP could address the country’s faltering birth rate: in addition to already allowing its citizens to have a third child, some voices have called for legislation to help reverse the growing demographic crisis.

In this sense, the local press highlights that the advisory body of the CCP will present a proposal to gradually open access to egg freezing to single women and include infertility treatment in the social security system, and another to guarantee that single mothers with children enjoy the same rights as married mothers.

Source: EFE