High officials of the United States government have confirmed that China is considering sending weapons to Russia for the war in Ukraine. The director of the CIA, Bill Burns, has said it in an interview with CBS News. And although it does not appear that a decision has been made from Beijing, that aid in the form of ammunition, artillery and drones could prolong the war.

China’s foreign ministry has not responded to these comments. For his part, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has promised there would be “real costs” to China if the country provides aid to Russia.

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What are they saying? According to nbcnews China is considering sending artillery, ammunition and drones to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine.

  • They have been three familiar sources, presumably US intelligence officials What have they said to CNN? that the Chinese government is considering this option. And they add that there does not seem to be a final decision yet, but negotiations between Russia and China on the price and scope of the equipment are ongoing.
  • Currently, there is no evidence that arms transfers have taken place, officials have said. They have spoken on condition of anonymity to discuss the US government’s assessment of the Washington Post .
  • It is a time when both sides are preparing for a spring offensive that could have profound consequences on the battlefield in Ukraine. It would be the first time that Beijing has provided lethal aid in the conflict. It would also violate the spirit of a peace plan that Chinese leaders proposed on Friday.

What would it imply? It would be the first time that China would provide lethal aid in the conflict.

  • Rob Lee, senior fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research, has said in Twitter that “the availability of artillery ammunition for Ukraine and Russia is arguably the most important variable that could influence the course of the war.”
  • If Moscow is turning to alternative suppliers, apart from the drones it has received from Iran, then it may be an indication that they are depleting their post-Cold War stocks of weapons and munitions at a rate they feel is unsustainable.
  • From a Chinese perspective, it is important that Russia is not defeated, as it has been providing Russia with significant support, whether in the form of increased imports of oil or other materials. Therefore, the objective of launching a peace plan by China is “to make sure that Russia cannot lose and force a negotiated agreement.”
  • However, if they provide lethal aid, including the artillery shells widely used in Ukraine or drones, Europe would be under pressure to respond.
  • If Beijing sent lethal aid it would also be violating the spirit of the peace plan that Chinese leaders proposed on Friday.

What peace plan did China propose? One year after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese government, led by Xi Jinping, presented a peace plan to end the armed conflict.

  • It was after a symbolic meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the head of Chinese diplomacy, Wang Yi, last Wednesday in Moscow.
  • The Chinese government’s proposal, released by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, comprises 12 points. Among the main points are: the ceasefire of both parties, avoiding the use of nuclear weapons, respect for the sovereignty of all countries, resolving the humanitarian crisis caused and ending unilateral sanctions.
  • Putin rejects the peace plan proposed by China and the Kremlin spokesman, Peskov, says that “the conditions do not exist to explore the peaceful path” although he appreciates Xi Jinping’s intention.

How is China currently helping Russia? Since the war began, China has become Russia’s most important trading partner.

  • After the Russian invasion of Ukraine a year ago, many western countries imposed strict sanctions on Russiafor example, prohibiting the import of oil or the export of technological products.
  • However, China has not wasted the opportunity either. It has been supplied with Russian hydrocarbons at low prices, thus also softening the impact of Western sanctions on the economy of the Eurasian country.
  • According to the BBC Russian imports from China rose 13% to $76 billion, and exports to China grew 43% to $114 billion. In addition, Russia exported twice as much liquefied petroleum gas to China in 2022 compared to the previous year. It also sent 50% more natural gas through the Poder de Siberia gas pipeline, which began operating in 2019, and 10% more crude.
  • They offer an alternative to the US dollar. After some Russian banks were cut from SWIFT, Moscow has been dropping the dollar for the Chinese yuan. In fact, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said via the Russian news agency TASS that Russia would only buy yuan in 2023 to replenish the wealth fund since of all the foreign currencies in which the Russian central bank had its reserves, it has only been the Chinese yuan that has not been frozen and remains “friendly”.
  • China has also largely refrained from publicly condemning the war. When the UN Security Council voted in September to outlaw Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories, China abstained.
  • In addition, both countries assure that they are ready to deepen strategic cooperation and that they could reach new trade agreements this year.