Climate change could affect 27% of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean, 20% of Asia and 11% of Africa.
About 1,234 million people will be affected by climate change in 2070 if the worst forecasts of the European Union Joint Research Center (JRC) are met.
According to a study published this Thursday by the scientific body, climate change may affect 27% of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean, 20% of Asia and 11% of Africa, due, above all, to a drastic reduction of local crops and agricultural food production.
Specifically, the report warns that the Horn of Africa, to the east of the continent, may be one of the most affected regions between now and 2070, with a drop of more than 20% in agricultural production for an area that, according to the study It already has a majority of the rural and poor population, which is especially vulnerable.
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Faced with this situation, the JRC scientists take it for granted that in the future there will continue to be migrations caused by the climate crisis, and cite some current flows in the Sahel region of Africa, although they also warn that the study does not find any structural and systematic link between migrations and environmental changes.
According to the researchers, there is “no statistically significant and unequivocal relationship between climate change and displacement within Africa.”
On the contrary, they emphasize that migration processes are “complex and have multiple causes” influenced, for example, by personal conditions, the geography of a territory or the political situation of a place.
“Not all people exposed to climate change will decide to emigrate, and others will not even have enough financial means to consider it,” the report asserts.
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However, the authors of the study call for institutions to focus on finding “local solutions” so that the inhabitants of each region can “adapt” to the climate reality of the future.
In this sense, the European Commission approved a climate adaptation strategy this February, with the aim of preventing, before 2050, those effects of global warming that are already unavoidable. (I)
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