Economists diverge on the causes of the price rises that are taking place in different parts of the world, as well as on the short and medium-term trajectory of the inflationary trend that is being noticed, according to the analysis that several of them have prepared at request from the World Economic Forum (WEF).
Comments have varied as to whether the greatest risk facing developed countries is excessively high demand levels leading to a “overheating”Of the economy or, rather, an increase in costs on the supply side, which would lead to stagflation.
The latter would imply a combined situation of zero growth with high inflation rates.
The specialists consulted by the WEF also do not reach a consensus as to whether the price increase is generalized or if the price pressure is concentrated in some specific product markets.
“There is the argument that inflation feeds itself. That if we think that money will lose value as a result of rising prices, then we act in a way that will happen”, Says the report prepared from the analysis of leading economists.
“It is clear that as the world is at a tipping point towards the post-pandemic economy, how governments and central banks react to inflation will be crucial.”He adds.
For the research economist of the Barclays, Christian KellerWhile the inflationary curve has remained within historical ranges, the evolution of the labor market -particularly in the United States- has been surprising due to the increase in wages due to the lack of labor.
In the energy sector specifically, the chief economist of the Norwegian firm Equinor, Eirik Waerness, argued that high inflation could have a negative impact on the energy transition, especially due to the adjustment in the costs of raw materials and labor, as well as higher interest rates.
For the chief economist of the Brazilian Petrobras, Rafaela Guedes Monteiro, in the coming months the consequences of high energy costs will be felt in inflation, and he predicted that these will continue at high levels until the beginning of 2022, although afterwards there will be a stabilization and the contribution of energy in inflation will begin to dissipate.
“The strength of the shock will depend on how central banks respond”, He stressed.
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