What can happen in Nicaragua after Ortega’s “triumph” in the presidential elections?

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega “prevailed” in Sunday’s general elections, extending his mandate until at least January 2027 and becoming the living American ruler with the longest consecutive time in office.

With approximately half of the votes counted as of Monday morning and 75% support according to the Supreme Electoral Council, the leftist ruler secured a fourth consecutive term after elections not recognized by the international democratic community, considering that they did not exist. democratic guarantees to be carried out.

Here are five scenarios for the future of the second poorest country in America:

Repression

Since the protests against the Ortega government began in April 2018, at least 300 people have lost their lives and 155 opponents remain behind bars, according to figures from human rights organizations, which qualify them as “political prisoners.”

The figure increased this year when 37 adversaries, including seven candidates for the Presidency, were apprehended for conspiracy and treason, while the Supreme Electoral Council stripped three parties of their legal accreditation and Congress did the same with 45 organizations of the society. civil, including six foreign NGOs.

The resurgence of repression, however, could have reached its peak since most of the political leaders left the country or have some judicial measure.

In any case, the arrests could extend to the common population, warned analysts interviewed by Reuters, with the aim of eliminating any option of dissent.

Greater international pressure

In the week, the government of the president Joe Biden He said he was willing to impose more sanctions against the Ortega administration. In addition, Washington has initiated a review of Nicaragua’s participation in a free trade agreement with Central America (DR-CAFTA).

However, the pact was rejected by the ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) party when it was in opposition in 2005.

Ortega assured in June that the sanctions would not bend his government and analysts believe that, despite isolating the Central American country even more, they would not result in a change of government, as it has not happened in Cuba and Venezuela, where the West has imposed numerous punishments.

On the contrary, the president and the vice president, his wife Rosario Murillo, would use the sanctions to justify the economic contraction of the largest country in Central America.

Faced with a possible increase in international pressure against the Ortega-Murillo government, the couple could get even closer to allies such as China and Russia in search of economic support.

Fragmented opposition

Ostracizing political and student leaders could help you Ortega to keep the opposition at bay since the majority of leaders are outside the country, behind bars or with prohibitions to move or express themselves freely.

It is difficult, in the short term, for the opposition to manage to articulate a united front after Sunday’s elections, since some called for a null vote, others for abstention, and several have been accused of being silent in the face of the climate of repression.

However, the opposition will have the opportunity to vindicate itself in the municipal elections at the end of 2022, when Nicaraguans would return to the polls to elect mayors and councilors of the 153 municipalities of the country.

This, as long as the elections have the minimum guarantees that Ortega’s opponents demand today.

Weak economy

Between 2000 and 2017, the country’s economic growth averaged 3.9% thanks to internal demand driven by remittances and foreign direct investment. But the beginning of the political crisis and the coronavirus pandemic resulted in a contraction of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 8.8% accumulated between 2018 and 2020.

Some analysts believe that Ortega and Murillo will seek to negotiate – behind the scenes – with important business sectors to reactivate the economy, seeking a stabilizing effect for their administration and normalizing society.

“The Government is aware that entrepreneurs are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy,” said Tiziano Breda, analyst at the International Crisis Group. “That is why he has launched messages of longing for a return to the positive relationships that existed before 2018.”

Already in 2009, Ortega agreed to an environment of coexistence with the main business associations of the country, which meant a good economic performance after the recession of that year, caused by the global financial crisis of 2008.

In addition, the Government would seek to maintain, at least in the short term, the financial flows of regional institutions such as the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

However, analysts believed that although dialogue with businessmen could be effective, the economic recovery would be slight since poverty would remain close to 40%.

Upward migration

More repression against the common citizen and poor economic performance can lead to more migration, not only to Costa Rica, the main destination of Nicaraguans, but to USA, compromising the Biden administration’s efforts to contain northward flows.

“With Costa Rica’s immigration system overwhelmed since 2018 with a backlog of 89,000 unsolved asylum applications, Nicaraguans are increasingly seeking other destinations, especially the United States,” International Crisis Group said in a report.

The number of Nicaraguans detained at the southern border of the United States has increased dramatically in 2021, from 575 in January to 13,391 in July, according to official figures.

However, with more and more Nicaraguans out of their country, remittances are growing year after year, which would help the government maintain levels of internal subsistence.

Between 2017 and 2020, money transfers from abroad soared 33% to US $ 1,851 million. Remittances represent around 15% of the country’s GDP, one of the highest percentages in Latin America.