Relief and caution in the first Chinese New Year after the end of the “zero COVID”

Three years later, the Chinese live with relief the first Lunar New Year no restrictions against COVID-19although also with caution due to the increase in the number of infections predicted by experts in this festive period.

In 2021 and 2022, the Chinese, who usually return to their places of origin during this festive period, faced restrictions on mobility on these dates and recommendations from the authorities to spend the holidays in their usual place of residence, online with the then current “zero COVID” policy.

Some simply consider it a return to pre-pandemic normalcy: “I live in Canton (south) and I want to travel to the north to see the snow. I’ll wait to see how the trip turns out before saying if I’m satisfied. If there are too many people, I fear being disappointed.”Lam, a Cantonese inhabitant, explains to Efe, referring to the crowds that usually form in tourist destinations during these dates and that were not common in 2021 and 2022.

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Other testimonials on the country’s social networks show satisfaction at being able to travel freely: “Three years later, the Lunar New Year hustle returns; we can finally go home. It is a sign that our lives are getting back on track towards normality”declared a user on the Weibo social network.

FEAR OF CONTAGIONS

Despite the fact that many provinces have calculated that most of their populations have already been infected with COVID -up to 90% of their inhabitants in some cases-, the authorities have been asking for weeks of caution against the possible spread of the virus due to the numerous displacements.

The Executive asked local governments in mid-December to give priority to health services in rural areas, pointing out “its relative scarcity of health care resources” and the closeness of the festive period, while the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, expressed this week his “concern” for said areas before the “return of workers and students”.

Local expert Fang Houmin advised against traveling during the holidays for people who have not yet been infected with COVID, statements that sparked criticism on social media: “This year I just want to finally go home”lamented a Weibo commenter, although other netizens did express their fear of “infect their relatives”.

The number of trips for the holidays is much higher than last year but is still far from the pre-pandemic data: this Thursday there were 46.1 million trips, a figure that, despite representing a year-on-year increase of 55.1%, it is still 44% lower than that registered on the same date in 2019, the last Lunar New Year before the appearance of COVID.

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It is hoped that this will be a boost for tourism or consumer-oriented businesses, which in recent years have been among the sectors most affected by the “zero COVID”.

OBJECTIVE: BOOST THE ECONOMY

This week, the Chinese will be concentrating on their celebrations, but after the festive period, the great challenge at the national level is the reactivation of the economy, which suffered this last year as a result of restrictions and confinements: official figures reflected a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3%, far from the government target of 5.5% and one of the lowest figures in decades.

Paradoxically, it was “zero COVID” that allowed China to establish itself as the only major world economy to resist the onslaught of the pandemic in 2020 by growing 2.2%, a figure that rose to 8.4% the following year.

However, the contagious omicron variant caught the authorities off guard, who did not know how to abandon their strategy in time and opted to redouble restrictions to try in vain to defeat it.

The British consultancy Capital Economics estimated in a recent report that, taking official indicators into account, the Chinese economy is today 7% smaller than it would have been if the pre-pandemic growth trend continued.

Now that “zero COVID” has disappeared, “the fear of being quarantined has been replaced by the fear of catching it”, points out Capital Economics, which, however, recognizes that the very rapid spread of the virus – up to 900 million people have already been infected, according to a study – could lead to a faster than expected recovery.

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“The disruptions (to economic activity) are fading fast. This, coupled with the trend towards growth-friendly policies, suggests that the rebound due to reopening will begin this quarter as 2023 as a whole will be stronger. We now expect China to grow 5.5% this year.”indicated the consultant.

Source: EFE