Chile goes blind from polls 15 days before crucial presidential election

The presidential campaign in Chile has as pointers the candidates of the left and the extreme right, as indicated so far by some questioned polls that from this Sunday, by law, will not be able to be released before the elections November 21.

The “blackout” of polls two weeks before the general elections, coincides with one of the most important campaigns of the 31 years of democracy in this country, with half of the 15 million voters undecided and in full change of institutional paradigm after the social crisis of 2019.

The latest polls gave right-wing José Antonio Kast first place, closely followed or tied by leftist Gabriel Boric, while others warn of favorable numbers for Christian Democratic candidate (center) Yasna Provoste, in a fought third place. Anyone could go to the second round on December 19 and replace the conservative Sebastián Piñera.

In a campaign on hiatus due to Boric’s covid contagion, which forced five of his six rivals to isolate themselves for a week, the polls have been widely criticized on social media by prominent sociologists and pollsters, who accuse them of manipulating after notorious mistakes. in its projections between 2019 and this year when the plebiscite, the constituent convention, governors and mayors were voted.

“There is a distortion produced by the mediocrity of politics, a degradation of politics,” economist and pollster Marta Lagos, executive director of Latinobarómetro, told AFP, explaining the lack of solid and reliable surveys.

Social claim with a right turn?

Today Chile is mired in uncertainty, with an ongoing process to change the Constitution but it is not clear who will be in charge of directing this new transition, 30 years after the end of the Augusto Pinochet dictatorship (1973- 1990).

If in October 2019 social discontent exploded against a neoliberal model imposed by the military regime, the presidential campaign has exposed the rise of a latent right since then.

“It is like a kind of outbreak of authoritarianism, just as the left exploded through the social explosion, now the counter-reform is coming, which is what happens in the great transformations of countries,” says Marta Lagos.

In his analysis, Lagos recalls that since the end of the dictatorship “that authoritarianism was there”, with around 40% of Pinochetists in the 1990s and now it stands at approximately 17%.

The undecided

The lack of clarity about these elections lies in the fact that the intention to vote is around 50% of the 15 million voters.

The most prominent options are the young leftist deputy Gabriel Boric for the Approve Dignity coalition – Broad Front and the Communist Party – and the right-wing José Antonio Kast for the Republican Party.

The latest polls showed practically a tie between the two. Criteria gave 24% to Boric and 23% to Kast last Thursday and Data Influye on Wednesday gave 32% to the leftist and 27% to the conservative.

The Christian Democratic senator Yasna Provoste would be the third option and the independent liberal official Sebastián Sichel the fourth, but more than 15 points away.

“The (current) election was plebiscited and we go back to 1988” when Chile voted for or against the continuation of Pinochet in a country divided between two antagonistic options, says Lagos.

Voluntary vote

The reality, Axel Callis, analyst and director of TuInfluyes.com, tells AFP, is that with the introduction of voluntary voting in 2012, participation fell below 50% and the young electorate has in their power to make a difference.

It recognizes three groups of voters: those who already voted with the compulsory vote and who “always vote”, the young people raised in the voluntary vote who “vote by letter” -1.2 million approximately- and those who do not participate.

“If young people come to vote, Boric is president, but if they do not and the older ones of (the presidential elections of) 2017 arrive and the entire popular base that Kast has goes, Kast is president,” says Callis.

Another factor is the undecided, who are between 20 and 50% according to different polls.

Mauricio Morales, an academic at the University of Talca, affirms that of the 50% of voters who do not know if they will vote, 15% will be those who decide to vote in the last two weeks.

“In reality it would not be so significant for the election result if we consider that the first two (candidates) have a large advantage over the third,” he explained to AFP.