China’s Labyrinth: Cutting Emissions and Sustaining Economic Advancement

The struggle between maintaining a high rate of economic growth and sharply cutting carbon dioxide emissions convert the environmental objectives of China, the most polluting country in the world, in a complicated juggling exercise.

The Chinese government’s plans aim to reach peak CO2 emissions by 2030, and emissions neutrality by 2060, as well as a reduction in carbon intensity of more than 65% from 2005 levels by 2030.

Likewise, 2030 would be the date by which Beijing aspires to ensure that non-fossil fuels provide 25% of the energy generated in the country, in which coal is currently the absolute protagonist, with around 60% of generation this.

However, according to Li Shuo, climate policy advisor for the Chinese branch of the environmental organization Greenpeace, it may be too late by 2030.

“The great long-term objectives are a step that we see with good eyes, but we will risk it in the coming years,” says Li. China needs to slash its addiction to coal this decade. The country should reach its emissions peak before 2025, and from there enter a period of decline (of polluting emissions) ”.

Objective: grow more than 6%

Traditionally, rapid economic growth has gone hand in hand with cheap energy sources, such as coal, and China’s planned economy – with its rigorous annual growth targets – has left little room for the energy transition in the Asian country.

In the last meeting of the Chinese Legislative, last March, the authorities set themselves the objective of growing “above 6%” during this year.

To this is added that, in the present five-year plan (2021-2025), no detailed growth objective is established and there is talk of “maintaining growth within a reasonable range and proposing annual goals when appropriate”.

Thus, the fact that -at least on paper- more rigid growth targets have been abandoned as in the past (in 2018, for example, the objective was “around 6.5 and 6.6 was achieved could facilitate the transformation towards a less polluting economy, in line with the guidelines for change towards “high quality” growth.

The energy crisis, an obstacle

At this time, the equation has been complicated by the current energy crisis that the Asian country is going through as a result of the growing demand for electricity by the industry, in the framework of the post-COVID recovery, which has been accompanied by an extraordinary demand of coal.

According to data from China’s highest economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission, since late October coal mining reached 11.5 million tons per day, almost 1.1 million more than at the end of September, which could serve to relax prices, but not its polluting impact.

“In the short term, the energy crisis (in the Asian country) will complicate (compliance with) China’s national contributions (presented to the UN),” explains Li Shuo of Greenpeace. “But the Chinese government has recently unveiled a new round of energy reforms that will make renewables more competitive than coal in the medium and long term.”

However, sources in the nuclear energy sector point out that China’s energy transformation plans also include a strong commitment to this type of energy.

Away from the 1.5 degree lane

Despite the announced efforts, China would continue to fall outside the ideal goal of limiting global warming to below a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels unless, Greenpeace insist, that it reaches the peak of emissions before 2025.

Li believes that only to achieve the environmental goals declared by Beijing will require “an economic and social transformation in China. Cosmetic changes are not going to bring a country as large as China to zero emissions. We need big surgeries ”.

“If China acts fast enough, both its carbon emissions and air pollution will be reduced considerably. This will benefit both China’s public health and its economy, ”he adds.

The European Union also considers that “it is crucial for China to act”, since “represents 28% of planetary emissions”, although they are aware that it is necessary to be “more ambitious” in the fight against climate change. world level.

Political interests

At Greenpeace they consider that “it is time to say goodbye to the economic development model focused on infrastructure. This model has served China well in recent decades, but it is hardly sustainable from an environmental or financial point of view. The way forward is to upgrade the Chinese economy to a service-based model. “

In addition, Li Shuo points to the political interests of certain Chinese mining basins, which in provinces such as central Shanxi or northern Inner Mongolia have historically had and still carry an important economic and political weight.

“Ingrained political interests (in some parts of the country) pose a great challenge. The coal industry is interested in holding back much-needed reforms in our energy sector. Addressing these challenges – ahead – will be the key test for the decarbonization of China. “