Sanctions, the international response to a popular re-election of Ortega

The international community has responded with a good number of convictions and sanctions to the actions against the opposition by the Government of the President of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, which will most likely have to face the rejection abroad of his sung victory in Sunday’s elections.

Sanctions and convictions that have focused on denouncing the violation of human rights and the multiple arrests of opponents, including seven possible presidential candidates.

With the United States, Canada and the European Union (EU) ready to tighten their measures, Ortega may face, in the political sphere, the absence of international recognition of his triumph, and, in the economic sphere, greater supervision of the loans granted by international organizations, among other measures.

Also institutions such as Organization of American States (OAS) they have condemned the actions of Managua, although they do not rule out other actions after Sunday.

Under the international magnifying glass

Since April 2018, when anti-government protests broke out in that country, Ortega and his wife and vice president, Rosario Murillo, have been the object of international scrutiny for the repression of the mobilizations that, according to human rights organizations, left hundreds of protesters imprisoned, dead or missing, as well as thousands of wounded.

The arrests of opponents during this electoral campaign were also answered forcefully by different countries.

However, they did not achieve the release of Cristiana Chamorro, Arturo Cruz, Félix Maradiaga, Juan Sebastián Chamorro, Miguel Mora, Medardo Mairena and Noel Vidaurre, aspiring presidential candidates accused of “treason”. They are part of the thirty opponents arrested since last May in that country.

Looking ahead to Sunday, the international community does not seem willing to tolerate the expected victory of the Nicaraguan leader, who aspires to his fifth five-year term, the fourth in a row and second together with Murillo.

Asked by Efe, a State Department spokesman confirmed that “the United States will continue to use the diplomatic and economic tools” available to it “to support the democratic aspirations of the Nicaraguan people.”

According to the official, the sanctions are not intended to “punish” but to provoke a “positive change in behavior”, and made it clear that relief from these measures will be available to those who “make significant contributions to restore democracy and the rule of law in Nicaragua. ”.

In late 2018, the United States Congress passed a bill known as the Nica Act, which orders US officials from multilateral lending institutions to use their influence to stop funding to Nicaraguan state agencies.

The initiative was signed into law by then-President Donald Trump (2017-2021).

But it has not been Washington’s only tool. In the past year, under the administration of Democrat Joe Biden, the Treasury Department has appointed dozens of Nicaraguan officials and their families, as well as those close to Ortega, including his daughter, Camila Antonia Ortega Murillo.

More heavy hand

And in anticipation of election day, the US Congress finally endorsed this Wednesday the so-called “Renacer” law (Reinforcing Compliance with Conditions for Electoral Reform), which will allow the Ortega government to increase sanctions.

On the same shore was the European Union, which opened the door to adopt new sanctions against the Central American country after elections that Brussels considers “false.”

“We have a sanctions regime in place against Nicaragua and it is constantly under review. We do not exclude making new decisions, ”said Peter Stano, the spokesman for the European External Action Service (EEAS) on Wednesday.

If a new round of sanctions is approved, they would be added to those that the EU already has in force against 14 people in Nicaragua and that last month it extended until October 2022, upon verifying that the Government of that country has “accelerated the repression, banning opposition parties and civil society organizations ”.

The sanctions regime approved by the EU countries in 2019 has reached Murillo and senior officials from that country. The measures range from the immobilization of the assets that those affected may have in the EU to the prohibition of travel or transit through that territory.

For its part, Canada has joined the sanctions against Nicaraguan officials, including the vice president and her daughter Camila Ortega Murillo, “in response to human rights violations.”

A transactional dialogue

For Manuel Orozco, an analyst at the American think tank Inter-American Dialogue, the sanctions “are going to have a strong weight” not in the political context, but in the economic one.

In his opinion, these measures can be translated into a possible “restriction of access to financing for the State’s debt” and to continue maintaining public spending.

“That is going to be relatively difficult the governance of Nicaragua in the next 10 months, at least,” said Orozco.

And from a post-electoral perspective, the expert did not rule out that Ortega seeks to promote an “exercise of national dialogue” in which he tries to carry out a “transactional negotiation to free the prisoners in exchange for some recognition, at least tacit, of his period. presidential”.