Moody’s Investors Service foresees that the regrowth of the COVID-19, the problems of the supply chain and job shortages decrease in 2022 and the global economy enters a stable growth phase in 2023, according to a report by the credit rating agency.
Moody’s expects the G20 economies to jointly grow 4.4% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023, as a result of higher household spending, inventory replenishment and increased capital investments, the firm said in a statement. .
In 2022, he estimates that the highest growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be observed in several “emerging” countries led by India (7%), China (5.3%) and Saudi Arabia (5.3%), while among the advanced The United Kingdom (4.8%), Germany (4.5%) and the euro area in general (4.5%) stand out, followed by the United States (4.4%).
The firm believes that the mismatch between supply and demand, as well as the deficit in the labor market, will improve in the coming quarters and this will allow inflationary pressures on the supply side to moderate.
“Monetary and credit conditions will tighten as central banks withdraw support with pandemic-era liquidity and interest rates and take a neutral stance,” said the agency’s senior vice president, Madhavi Bokil, author of the report. .
“If the adjustment is gradual and well communicated – thus avoiding financial market surprises – we do not expect it to derail growth,” he added.
In its report, Moody’s recognizes that the evolution of the pandemic continues to be a source of uncertainty, adding to it the risk that problems in the supply chain will persist and the possibility that inflation will rise without adjusting wages, which it would affect the purchasing power of households.
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