The conflict unleashed in the Ethiopian region of Tigray (north) this Thursday celebrates a year at a time in which the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray (TPLF) has managed to repel the Army offensive and has even obtained advances in adjacent regions, which makes us fear an expansion of the war at the national level. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed gave the order to launch the offensive on November 4, 2020 in response to an attack by the TPLF, then ruling Tigray, against the main Army base in the regional capital, Mekelle.
The attack and subsequent offensive were the materialization of tensions between the group – the strong party within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition, which ruled since 1991 – and the central government, led since 2018 by Abiy. Although the disputes began on the political track, took a drastic turn to violence on November 3, 2020 with the attack in Mekelle, which set off international alarms at the risk that the conflict would destabilize the country and the entire Horn of Africa.
Faced with these fears, Abiy stated on November 9 that the operation “is intended to ensure peace and stability“and stressed that” concerns about a descent into chaos by Ethiopia are unfounded and the result of not deeply understanding the context. “However, the conflict enters its first anniversary with the TPLF still in control of Tigray and with advances in Afar and Amhara, while it has established ties with the rebel group Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which has also launched attacks in Oromia.
Timeline of a devastating conflict
The tensions between the central government and the TPLF go back to Abiy’s rise to power in April 2018 following the resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn after two years of protests by mainly members of the Oromo and Amhara communities. Abiy, the first member of the Oromo community to hold the position, initiated reforms and announced decisions considered by the TPLF as an attempt to reduce its political power and as a revenge against high-ranking members of the group that were in the previous Executive. Thus, he began the dismantling of the EPRDF, made up of four ethnic parties and replaced by the Party of Prosperity -in which the TPLF is not integrated-, and activated a rapprochement with Eritrea that resulted in a peace agreement with the president Eritrean, Isaias Afewerki, staunch enemy of the Tigrinya group.
These measures, applauded internationally, were followed by an upsurge in inter-ethnic tensions that they left hundreds of dead, a situation attributed by Addis Ababa to a destabilization campaign by the TPLF through associated groups, including the OLA. Finally, the postponement of women parliamentarians on two occasions due to insecurity and the pandemic was seen by the TPLF as an attempt by Abiy to consolidate power without going to the polls – especially after the extension of her mandate by Parliament until the holding the vote – so he chose to cut ties with Addis Ababa and hold elections on his own in the region.
The control of Mekelle, regional capital, is key in the dispute between sides and being the scene of bloody offensive
In this context, the TPLF carried out on November 3, 2020 an attack on the main Army base in Mekelle that resulted in a large number of dead soldiers and the capture by the group of an important arsenal with which, according to Abiy, they sought to advance towards Addis Ababa. For this reason, the prime minister gave the order to launch an offensive in which the Ethiopian troops had the support of Amhara militias and Eritrean troops, in a sign of the new relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara and the rivalry between Eritrea and the TPLF. During the following days, the Army made important advances and ended up taking control of Mekelle on November 28, after which Addis Ababa announced the creation of an interim administration, while the TPLF denounced abuses by government and Eritrean forces. and he even spoke of a “genocide”.
Thus, the group then began a process of reorganization and rearmament for its counteroffensive, which allowed it to recover with Mekelle at the end of June despite the government’s refusal for weeks to acknowledge that it was losing ground. Finally, Abiy declared a ceasefire arguing humanitarian reasons in the region, plagued by an increase in poverty and hunger, something rejected by the TPLF, which demanded the withdrawal of government troops and launched attacks in Afar and Amhara. Since then, the conflict has maintained a relatively low profile, although the prime minister ordered a new offensive on October 13 after being sworn in for a second term after the elections were held in June, which has intensified the fighting.
The Government has provided very little information on the situation on the ground and has limited itself to confirming bombardments against TPLF targets in and around Mekelle, although the group has made progress and assured that the military “is in disarray.” In fact, the leader of the TPLF, Debretsion Gebremichael, stressed on Monday that “the only option is to destroy the fascist group and complete the defense with a huge victory” and rejected the possibility of starting negotiations, while Abiy has denounced that “foreign forces “They fight on the side of the group, without giving more details.
In this context, the advances of the TPLF in the cities of Dessie and Kombolcha, both in the Amhara region, and the attacks of the OLA – split from the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) after the 2018 peace agreement- threaten to cause the war to end up affecting the whole country. TPLF spokesman Getachew Reda told the BBC on Tuesday that the two groups – declared terrorists by Ethiopia – have managed to make contact north of Addis Ababa, posing a real threat to the Ethiopian capital. Faced with this situation, the prime minister has called on the population to rise up in arms against the TPLF and has declared a state of emergency, while the Amhara and Oromia authorities have decreed a state of emergency due to the risk of deterioration of the situation.
For their part, the intelligence services have asked the residents of the capital to strengthen precautions while carrying out operations against “nostalgic for the TPLF” and not to spread “false information”, according to the newspaper ‘Addis Standard’. Likewise, the regions of Afar, Harari, Gambella and the Region of Nations, Nationalities and Peoples of the South (SNNPR) have called for unity against the TPLF and they have accused the group of perpetrating attacks against the civilian population. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) highlights on its website that 5.2 million people need humanitarian aid in Ethiopia and reports a “large-scale displacement” in the surroundings of Dessie and Kombolcha due to the recent fighting.
“The delivery of urgent humanitarian aid has been damaged due to insecurity and the limited presence of humanitarian partners, “he affirms, amid complaints about the obstacles of the Ethiopian authorities to the delivery of aid – of which Addis Ababa accuses the TPLF – and the criticisms of Ethiopia against the UN for an alleged bias in favor of the group. The situation threatens to plunge the country into “chaos” that Abiy promised would not take place, especially due to the deterioration of the humanitarian situation and allegations of atrocities by the parties in conflict for nearly a year, including massacres, rapes and enforced disappearances.
Africa and the EU demand an end to the conflict
Different African leaders have called for an end to the violence in the country. The president of the African Union (AU) Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, called for “an immediate cessation of hostilities” in Ethiopia, a request also made by the president of neighboring Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta. Mahamat urged all sides of the Ethiopian war “to enter into dialogue to seek a peaceful solution in the interest of the country. The president of the Commission (secretariat) also demanded that the parties and their leaders” do not retaliate against the population and refrain from inciting hatred, violence and division. ”
Kenyatta, for his part, joined the request of the pan-African organization and indicated that “the origins of this crisis, bitter and unacceptable as they may seem, cannot continue to be used as a justification for the suffering, murders and war that are now involving to Ethiopia. ” “The fighting continues, the death toll continues to rise, forced displacement persists, and the suffering and the humanitarian emergency have taken root in the country“, stressed the Kenyan president, in a statement published late on Wednesday.
Along these lines, the Member States of the European Union They have also called for the parties in Ethiopia to be held accountable for human rights violations. and the alleged war crimes recorded in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. In a statement to Twenty-seven, the European bloc echoes the United Nations report that documents ethnic violence and torture against civilians and combatants, as well as sexual violence, destruction of property and religious sites, among other violations of International Law.
The EU reiterates that there is no military solution and calls on the parties to the conflict to implement a ceasefire with immediate effect and to enter into political negotiations without preconditions “
The bloc demands an end to these practices and recalls that these episodes can involve war crimes and crimes against humanity. “Those responsible must be held accountable in an independent, impartial and transparent way. Atrocities committed after June 2021 must be studied. The EU calls for the rapid implementation of the report’s recommendations,” he said. “The EU reiterates that there is no military solution and calls on the parties to the conflict to implement a ceasefire with immediate effect and to engage in political negotiations without prior conditions,” he stressed, insisting that Eritrean troops must leave Ethiopian territory.
With regard to the humanitarian crisis, which affects more than five million people, the EU underlines the need for “immediate action” to ensure “full, continuous and predictable” access to all areas of the territory experiencing an emergency situation. . Therefore, it calls on all parties to commit to alleviating the famine situation and alleviating the suffering of the local population and insists that they comply with International Humanitarian Law, including the protection of humanitarian workers.
Mario Twitchell is an accomplished author and journalist, known for his insightful and thought-provoking writing on a wide range of topics including general and opinion. He currently works as a writer at 247 news agency, where he has established himself as a respected voice in the industry.
