Polish gas storage facilities are full to the brim, but this does not mean idyll. “We are not 100% safe”

– We are secured for this season – said Minister of Climate Anna Moskwa on Thursday in Polsat News. As one of the proofs, she stated that our gas storage facilities are 100 percent full.

Anyway, this argument – about filled to the brim gas storage in Poland – has been going on for a long time. This is the truest truth. The data from the AGSI (Agregated Gas Storage Inventory) database of the Gas Infrastructure Europe (European organization of gas infrastructure operators) indeed shows that Polish gas storage facilities are full (over 99%).

For comparison, the state in the entire Union is about 70 percent. (the target is an 80% congestion at the beginning of November this year), about 70-80% each. For example, Germany, the French and the Italians have gas in their storage. It is also worth recalling that some EU countries do not have their own gas storage facilities.

Some of them (Greece, Finland, Lithuania, Malta) will be able to use their own LNG terminals to bring gas from other directions. The basis for the energy security of other countries (Estonia, Luxembourg and Slovenia) will be effective cooperation with other Member States and providing for the management of gas consumption in the winter

– economists from the Polish Economic Institute wrote in July.

Polish gas storage facilities are full, but small

There is only one key star. Polish warehouses are relatively small – they will accept “only” slightly more than 3 billion square meters of gas (and this is how much we have in stock – around 3.2 billion m3). On the other hand, Polish gas consumption is approx. 20 billion m3 per year (according to AGSI data from 2020 – 19 billion).

That is – our gas reserves are able to cover approximately 15 percent. annual demand. These, however, are much higher in winter. Roughly speaking, Poland is able to survive about one winter month on its reserves.

From this perspective, the Polish situation no longer differs from other EU countries. The EU average is currently approx. 19 percent. (this is the amount of consumption that the current reserves in warehouses are able to cover). German stocks account for approx. 17 percent. demand, French about 22 percent, Spanish or Portuguese just a few percent, but for example Austrian, Czech or Slovak about 40-50 percent.

We boast that we have almost 100 percent full. gas storage facilities. Only that we have storage facilities for a little over 3 billion m3 of gas, and we consume about 20 billion m3 per year. So our stocks are approx. 15 percent. wear. Germany uses about 90 billion m3, but has 22 billion m3 of storage space. The storage capacity is therefore approx. 25 percent. wear. Therefore, even if our warehouses are filled with almost 100%, and in Germany 70%, these stocks in fact cover the same demand

– says Dawid Czopek, managing director at Polaris FIZ in an interview with Gazeta.pl.

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Will there be a shortage of gas in Poland and Europe?

Government representatives – including Minister Moscow – they argue that Poland is completely gas-proof for the coming winter.

Dawid Czopek does not have such a conviction, although he still “thinks that Poland and Europe will be able to cope” and is “more optimistic than, for example, in June”.

What we have for sure is 4 billion m3 of gas from our own extraction, 6 billion from the gas terminal in Świnoujście, up to 2 billion LNG from Lithuania, approximately 3-4 billion m3 we have from the Baltic Pipe. This gives a total of approx. 16 billion m3. We are a bit short of these 20 billion m3. There are warehouses, there may be savings, but we are not 100%. safe

– enumerates Czopek. He adds that, contrary to what may seem, it will depend on the situation in Western Europe whether there is a shortage of gas in Poland or not.

We do not have 100 percent. secured their needs and if there is a gas problem in Germany, so will we. I can see that the Germans are serious about things, they have contingency plans

– indicates the expert.

However, the situation is still extremely tense. Aleksander Śniegocki from the Reform Institute sounds the alarm on Twitter.

We urgently need to start talking seriously about gas safety this winter and about systemic energy saving in Poland. First of all, our reserves are small in relation to the demand, so filling them does not guarantee us peace. Secondly, the gas shock will directly affect Germany and the rest of the Visegrad Group, with which we are strongly integrated economically, so the Polish economy will feel indirect effects

– Śniegocki writes, referring to the recent report of the International Monetary Fund and the latest information from the market (including the fact that PGNiG currently has 4.5 billion contracted out of 10 billion m3 of gas from the Baltic Pipe).

The entry by Marek Menkiszak from the Center for Eastern Studies does not sound too careless either. He notes that although the current rate of filling European gas storage facilities indicates that reaching the planned level of 80 percent. at the end of October it is real, but – firstly – it still guarantees “only” about three months of average annual consumption, and secondly – Russia will probably try to thwart EU plans by reducing or blocking gas transmission, for example, via Ukraine or the Nord Stream 1.

Russian Gazprom has been systematically reducing natural gas supplies to EU countries. Currently, they amount to approx. 118 million m3 per day, i.e. 28 percent. the standard level of 2021. Of the 4 main routes of supply, Russia has completely suspended transmission via the Yamal pipeline (via Poland to Germany). Through the “Brotherhood” gas pipeline through Ukraine to Central Europe. about 42 million m3 per day (i.e. 38.5% of the contracted volumes) flows through Nord Stream 1 to Germany: about 32 million m3 (i.e. 19% of standard volumes). Only the “European” line of the Turk Stream gas pipeline works at full capacity: about 44 million m3 per day (i.e. over 95% of the maximum transmission)

– Menkiszak lists. The expert is convinced that in the face of Russia’s actions, it will be necessary both to increase LNG imports to Europe and to further reduce gas consumption.

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