Global warming projects four main risks to Europe, including more deaths and people with heat stress, agricultural losses in most areas and an increase in fires, water shortages for the population in the south of the continent and an increase in damage by coastal flooding. This is stated in the second installment of the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), entitled ‘Climate change 2022: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability’, and prepared by 270 authors of Working Group II.
“This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction“said IPCC Chairman Hoesung Lee, adding: “It shows that climate change is a serious and growing threat to our well-being and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks.”
Human-induced global warming causes “dangerous and widespread alterations in nature” and affects the lives of billions of people around the world, despite efforts to reduce their risks, according to the report. The people and ecosystems least able to cope are the most affected.
The risks on Europe
The IPCC indicates that the current global warming of 1.1ºC more than in the pre-industrial era “it is already affecting natural and human systems in Europe” and that “the combined impacts of droughts and heat waves have become more frequent”, especially in the south of the continent. Scientists have identified four climate risks for Europe.
Thus, more than a third of the population in the south of the continent will be exposed to scarcity of water with a warming of 2ºC and that risk will increase “significantly” in the South and Central West if temperatures rise 3C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, the number of deaths and people at risk of heat stress it will increase two to three times with global warming of 3°C compared to 1.5°C, and above 2°C suitable habitat for terrestrial and marine ecosystems will decline. Fire-prone areas are expected to expand across Europe, threatening biodiversity and carbon sinks.
Another climate risk is that there will be more agricultural losses in most of the continent during this century, which will not be offset by better yields in northern Europe. Thus, the risk will be increasingly limited by the better availability of water with a warming of more than 3ºC. Damage costs and people affected by rains and river flooding could double with global warming of 3°C or more. The damages for coastal flooding they will increase at least 10-fold by the end of this century and rising sea levels will pose an existential threat to coastal communities and their cultural heritage after 2100.
The importance of urgent action
To alleviate these future climate risks, the IPCC proposes adaptation options, such as improvements in efficiency, reuse and early warning systems (water scarcity); build spaces that manage heat risks and restore, expand and connect protected areas (heat); changes in agricultural practices and crop rotation (agriculture); and early warning systems, sediment or engineering-based options (floods).
On the other hand, the IPCC stresses that the world faces multiple unavoidable climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C. Even temporarily exceeding this level of warming will result in additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible. Risks to society will increase, including for low-lying coastal settlements and infrastructure. The report points out that the increase in heat waves, droughts and floods are already exceeding the tolerance thresholds of plants and animals, causing massive mortalities in species such as trees and corals. These climate extremes are occurring simultaneously, causing cascading impacts that are increasingly difficult to manage.
Half of the world’s population lives in areas “highly vulnerable” to climate change
Between 3.3 and 3.6 billion people live in situations that are highly vulnerable to climate change. Indeed, they have exposed millions of people to acute food and water insecurity, especially in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, on small islands and in the Arctic. In addition, climate-driven local population extinctions have been widespread among plants and animals, detected in 47% of the 976 species examined and associated with increases in higher annual temperatures.
Regarding the endemic species and in all the climate scenarios and time periods evaluated, 100% are in danger of extinction due to climate change in the islands, 84% in the mountains, 54% in the oceans and seas. (especially the Mediterranean) and 12% on the continents.
To avoid a growing loss of life, biodiversity and infrastructure, ambitious and accelerated action is required to adapt to climate change, as well as rapid and deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. So far, progress on adaptation is uneven and there are widening gaps between measures taken and what is needed to tackle rising risks, according to the new report. These gaps are largest among low-income populations. “This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, biodiversity and people and integrates natural, social and economic sciences more strongly than previous IPCC assessments,” said Hoesung Lee, adding: “It emphasizes the urgency for immediate action and more ambitious to address climate risks. Half measures are no longer an option.
The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, has urged countries to act decisively and with intensity in adaptation and mitigation against climate change because delaying action means “death”. Thus, he has warned that this new document reviews that people and the planet are being “trapped by climate change”, confirms that humanity is at risk “now”; that many ecosystems are already at a point of no return now; that coal pollution is happening “now”. In a blunt tone he has denounced that the abdication of the leadership is criminal and has accused the big polluters of being the culprits. Thus, Guterres has insisted that emissions must be cut by 45 percent between now and 2030 and achieve zero emissions by 2050, but despite the fact that all the actors, public and private, know what they have to do, the emissions do not to increase. “If we destroy any possibility of achieving the 1.5ºC goal, it will shock humanity,” he warned.
Source: Lasexta
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