“The next great revolution, on an industrial scale.” These people will lose their prestige and earnings advantage

Artificial intelligence is most likely the next great technological revolution, similar to the agrarian or industrial revolution

– Pekao economists put forward a hypothesis in their publication. In their opinion, large language models such as ChatGPT have proven to be so efficient at writing, counting and creating images that their role will change dramatically over time. They will no longer be used solely as tools, but will simply replace office workers. This, in turn, means that these people will lose social prestige and earnings advantage.

This process has already started and is visible, for example, in the decline in demand for work on freelancing platforms. In the longer term, global offshore business service centers are at risk

– they comment. They point out that office workers will not give up the field without a fight, and that they will have courts and regulators on their side, but this will probably only slow down the entire process.

According to a recent report by the World Labor Organization, more than four-fifths of office workers’ jobs are at high or moderate risk of automation.

Pekao economists predict that although it is primarily Internet content creators who should feel threatened, the range of such professions is much wider.

Many service providers, e.g. auditors, graphic designers, lawyers, marketing and accounting specialists, strategic consultants, may develop very effective competition in the next few years. And it will not take the form of people skillfully using tool-based artificial intelligence, but of autonomous bots

– predict.

Artificial intelligence is a threat to online businesses, including the media

Pekao economists also predict that up to half of current online businesses will lose profitability as a result of the development of artificial intelligence. This applies to online media, but not only.

Artificial intelligence will impact internet traffic. We will be flooded with generic, boring and poor quality content. As a result, organic traffic on the Internet will decrease and its business model will change. We will probably just query chatbots instead of searching directly on websites

– explains Dr. Ernest Pytlarczyk, chief economist at Pekao. This change will apply not only to information, but also to advice and purchases.

Analysts predict that we will also see internet fragmentation in the future. The point is that (difficult to tax) income from artificial intelligence will flow mainly to a narrow group of US companies, and the falling demand for office work, including on the global B2B services market, will escalate tensions between the US and service exporters (such as Poland). Effect? According to Pekao economists, many countries will begin to close access to artificial intelligence from the US in order to protect their labor market and tax revenues. At the same time, they will work with their own artificial intelligence. -So they will do what China has been doing for years – summarize analysts.

The question remains open whether the development of artificial intelligence will increase the so-called technological unemployment. As Pekao economists point out, so far the automation of workplaces has not had such an effect, among others: due to their adaptation to new tasks, it nevertheless increased income inequality and polarized society. Artificial intelligence will further strengthen this trend.

Will Ultimate Artificial Intelligence Make Work Unnecessary?

Pekao economists have given artificial intelligence a separate point on their list of megatrends. They predict that when artificial intelligences pass the tipping point and surpass humans, we will experience a real revolution.

Then artificial intelligence will be able to drive its own further development, which will cause its intelligence to continue to grow at an exponential rate. Then they will begin to look more like magic than technology to us: we will no longer understand them and their products. (…) Human work will become essentially redundant. We will value it mainly for sentimental, not economic reasons. We will have to come up with a new way of distributing goods, although it is possible that artificial intelligence will do it for us. The new key resource will be energy, which AI consumes in huge amounts

– predict.

Nine megatrends according to Pekao

Among the megatrends that will be crucial for the global economy and society, apart from artificial intelligence and ultimate artificial intelligence, are the arms race, deglobalization, the new migration of peoples, the populist turn in politics, the resource rush, the energy transformation and the electrification of life.

Nvidia boss: focus on agriculture

The development of artificial intelligence and the resulting loss of advantages of white collars over blue collars appears, of course, not only in the diagnoses and forecasts of Pekao analysts. Recently, the advice of Jensen Huang, the head of Nvidia, has been widely discussed. At the World Government Summit in Dubai, he argued that instead of coding, young people should focus on developing more useful and practical skills. He mentioned, among others: biology, education, production and agriculture.

Our task is to create technology thanks to which none of us will have to program. When a programming language is a human language, then everyone in the world is a programmer. It’s a miracle of artificial intelligence

Huang said.

from the technology department of eNxt.gazeta.pl, Nvidia is currently experiencing the best period in its 30-year history.

All this is due to the AI ​​revolution, in which chips produced by Nvidia play the leading role. Suffice it to say that the American manufacturer has approximately 80 percent of the market share in these devices

– Maikowski explained. Nvidia has joined the group of the largest companies in the world. It has already overtaken companies such as: Alphabet (owner of Google) and Amazon. It is “fighting” for third place on the list with Saudi Aramco, only Microsoft and Apple are ahead of them. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Nvidia’s revenue increased 265 percent to $22.1 billion and profit increased 769 percent to $12.3 billion.