The 2023 end-of-year survey from the Cedatos and Gallup International Association reflects the population’s fear of a possible world war.

“The majority of people worldwide believe that the New Year 2024 will be problematic and not at all peaceful compared to the previous one,” according to the survey, which included 40,428 cases from 47 countries.

Eight in ten citizens on all continents fear a possible nuclear war, the risk of which is assessed as ‘moderate to high’.

Global citizens surveyed by Gallup International believe there will be economic hardship rather than economic prosperity next year (39%).

These are some of the key takeaways from the Gallup International Association’s (GIA) traditional annual and year-end survey, of which Cedatos has been a part since 1998.

One in four people in the world expect a more peaceful 2024 (26%), but two in five believe the opposite, thinking it will be a more problematic year (39%).

A few years ago, the Global Peace Optimism Index revealed an almost equal share of optimists and pessimists.

Conflicts such as the war in Ukraine drive these fears, as there is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict with Russia.

In Ukraine itself, 26% of respondents expect a more peaceful year in that country, 33% think it will be more problematic, while 36% of Ukrainians think this year will be the same.

In Russia, 12% of respondents said this year will be more peaceful, 35% will be more conflictual and 29% will be the same as the year before.

The West as a whole seems concerned. In the opposite corner would be more southern and eastern countries, with examples such as Afghanistan and Indonesia showing up to 68% positive expectations for peace and war.

Unfortunately, there will be no significant reduction in nuclear fear in 2024.

69% of Ecuadorians fear that nuclear weapons will be used

At the national level, 69% of Ecuadorians surveyed fear the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons in the world.

In Ecuador, 42% are optimistic about a more peaceful world, while 30% of Ecuadorians surveyed say the world will “stay the same” and 21% think the world will be more problematic.

After Indonesia, Ecuador is the two countries with the greatest fear of the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons: 72% and 69% respectively, compared to 40% worldwide, who see a high risk of the use of nuclear weapons37. % a moderate risk and only 14% see no risk. 8% did not respond to this question.

38% think the country’s situation will be “better” in 2024; 32% think it will be the same as in 2023, while 25% think the situation will be ‘worse’.

Just like last year, a majority of Americans considered the risk of the use of nuclear weapons to be moderate at 52%. In Russia, the attitude is also similar to last year: this time the indicated stocks are moderate risk versus high risk 40% to 20%.

Two in five respondents worldwide expect a better year (39%), one in four expect a worse year (26%) and 28% expect the same year as the previous one.

Countries such as Germany, the United States and Russia are showing some improvement in expectations compared to the end of 2022, although they remain concerned.

For example, major players such as Iran are not pessimistic, India is clearly positive and the southern countries, for example, are traditionally optimistic.

Europe, on the other hand, is still not so positive. With the fortunate exceptions of the Albanian communities. Surprisingly, Saudi Arabia shows 84% ​​positive expectations.

Economic expectations are also showing signs of relief, but they are quite weak.

39% worldwide expect a year of greater economic difficulties, nine points less than twelve months ago.

Expectations of prosperity or at least no change, on the other hand, indicate some increase, but negativity still clearly dominates.

Ecuador ranked 12th out of 47 countries evaluated regarding potential economic prosperity: 33%, 32% of Ecuadorians surveyed said things will remain the same and 31% said there will be economic difficulties. (JO)

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