What does the agreement between the government and the opposition of Venezuela consist of (and what changes)

Venezuela’s government and opposition took a step Tuesday toward presidential elections recognized by both parties and the international community.

To this end, they signed an agreement to hold the elections in the second half of 2024.

At a ceremony in Barbados, headquarters of the dialogues that began in Mexico in 2021, the parties signed a series of agreements that, among other electoral guarantees, “include the authorization of all presidential candidates, as long as they meet the requirements set by the law”.

Several opposition candidates, who hope to meet each other in the internal primaries on Sunday, are disqualified for various reasons.

And the head of the delegation of the government of Venezuela, Jorge Rodríguez, said that if a candidate is disqualified, he cannot be a candidate for president.

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Nicholas Maduro He won elections in 2018 in which the opposition did not participate because they were considered fraudulent, leading to non-recognition by much of the international community. This has had political and economic consequences in recent years.

While this is an unprecedented development in the years of negotiations between Chavismo and the opposition, experts consulted by BBC Mundo assure that the incentives given to the government to honor the agreements are not yet known.

US media reported that as part of the negotiations, Washington agreed with the ruling party to lift some sanctions that prevent the sale of Venezuelan oil abroad and worsen an economic crisis that has driven more than seven million people from Venezuela.

“In these two years we have insisted on seeking consensual solutions. Today we can confirm that this struggle has taken the first step towards the electoral trajectory, with conditions that allow political change,” said Gerardo Blyde, head of the opposition delegation.

The leader highlighted the agreements that require guarantees so that “this Sunday we can have peaceful primaries and a route for the disqualified and the political parties to quickly regain their rights.”

To the above have been added agreements aimed at guaranteeing international observation of the elections, defining a fair electoral schedule, promoting audits for the process and updating the electoral register to include Venezuelans living abroad included, which already accounts for a quarter of the elections. the population.

Skepticism towards an unprecedented agreement

Many Venezuelans will view this resolution with skepticism.

In recent years, the results of negotiations between the government and the opposition have been precarious.

The credibility of both parties is being damaged after years of political frustration for those hoping for a change of government in the country.

In Venezuela there is talk of re-election for an indefinite period and Maduro has been in power for more than ten years. In the 2018 elections, a significant part of the opposition refused to participate because there were no guarantees.

Since then, the United States government has increased sanctions and the ruling party has made minor concessions to the opposition.

The 2021 regional elections had the participation of the opposition, but disqualifications, the ban on voting abroad, the unequal access to the media and the low confidence of opposition voters in the system marked elections in which the ruling party won .

Now a new election process is approaching and many Venezuelans remain in doubt.

“The key to the agreement will be how effective the agreed monitoring and verification mechanism is, so that the agreed guarantees are implemented, most of which are already provided for in Venezuelan law,” he said. Mariano de AlbaVenezuelan analyst at the Crisis Group, a think tank.

Luis Vicente LeonThe Venezuelan analyst added: “These agreements cannot comprehensively solve the country’s many problems, nor will they save institutions or electoral competitiveness, but that does not mean that their specific and incremental progress is irrelevant or secondary.”

The issue of disqualifications remained open in the agreement signed on Tuesday. It is likely that opposition candidates will start a qualification process, but experts doubt that authorities, considered close to the ruling party, will allow candidates with more support to participate.

“It would be excellent news if the disqualifications would end,” says León, “but at the moment that is not feasible. The government’s exit costs are infinite and it does not want to take that risk. And your accommodation costs are moderate, while you keep accommodation routes that you don’t waste. “It’s not about desires, but about reality,” he clarifies. (JO)