Three keys to understanding Ecuador’s crisis of violence and the proposals to combat it by Daniel Noboa, the newly elected president

Strong hand, deep prison reforms and investment in crime-fighting technology.

It is the summary of the recipe book proposed by the newly elected President of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, against the crisis of violence that the country is experiencing.

It is his biggest challenge as president and with double problems: he will only be in office until May 2025 and he will have to deal with a fragmented National Assembly (AN) and a large number of Correismo seats.

Noboa defeated the Correísta candidate in the second round on Sunday Luisa González after the outgoing president, Guillermo Lassowill declare the dissolution of the National Assembly in May and call for early elections through a constitutional mechanism known as “crossed death.”

Lasso may have been fired for embezzling public funds, allegations he denies.

In this way, Noboa will cover the remaining term of Lasso, who has held the presidency since May 2021.

Violence in Ecuador marked the election campaign with the assassination of several political leaders, including the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicenciorecorded during a meeting last August.

We analyze the security crisis in Ecuador based on three keys and how Noboa wants to combat it.

1. Political violence

The murder of Villavicencio has shown that even the best-known politicians are not immune to the violence in the country.

Trade union leader, journalist and deputyVillavicencio launched himself as the movement’s presidential candidate To build.

He stood out for denouncing drug trafficking leaks in official government agencies and for his proposals to strengthen security through the police and military.

His murder was perhaps the most serious, but not the only one.

The Mayor of the City of Manta, Agustin Intriago, He was shot dead in July while visiting a construction site. The incident was described by authorities and the athlete as an assault. Ariana Estefania Chancaywho had approached the official for help also died.

In the same month it became a candidate for deputy Rinder Sanchez He was shot when four men allegedly tried to steal his car.

In February, two mayoral candidates were killed in separate attacks.

Intriago’s death coincided with a new outbreak of violence in Ecuadorian prisons.

On July 22, prisoners of the Guayas Deprivation of Freedom Center No. 1located in Guayaquil, the second most populous city and home to Ecuador’s main port, faced off.

Authorities sent 2,700 police and soldiers to restore order and put an end to the incidents that followed 31 diedThis is evident from data from the Public Prosecution Service.

During these tasks, the uniformed officers used an arsenal long-range rifles, grenade launchers, ammunition and explosivesreported the armed forces.

Hours later, prisoners in 13 of the country’s 35 prisons began a hunger strike and detained about 100 guards.

President Lasso’s response was to impose states of exception in different parts of the country.

Many analysts doubt that this measure can put an end to the recurring violence in prisons that has disappeared more than 400 deaths since 2021according to Human Rights Watch.

To top it all off, there were attacks and bombings on commercial establishments, private vehicles and public transport in some cities and towns.

2. The clutches of the drug trade

The western provinces of Esmeraldas, Guayaquil and Manta have been the main scenes of recent violence in Ecuador.

There are the country’s main ports, infrastructure coveted by criminals, especially drug traffickers.

“Ecuador’s main problem regarding the geopolitics of drug trafficking is caused by its territorial location next to Colombia and Peru, the world’s leading cocaine producers, and by the weakness of integrated border controls that facilitate the entry of drugs. then transported to strategic points on the coast and Guayaquil,” Ecuador’s National Police admitted in a report published in July.

In the same report, the organization acknowledged that the lack of state control over maritime and air territory facilitates the departure of aircraft and ships from ports without any control.

These conditions favored the formation of national criminal organizations and the arrival of international organizations. Since 2019, drug seizures in the country have almost tripledAccording to the report, this has risen to 201 tonnes compared to 79.5 four years earlier.

The number of murders is also increasing.

This is indicated by the Ecuadorian Observatory for Organized Crime In the first half of 2023, the number of intentional homicides increased by 528% compared to the first half of 2019.

“By the end of 2023, the country could reach a murder rate per 100,000 inhabitants of more than 35,” the agency said in its latest report.

Authorities claim that the vast majority of murders are related to drug trafficking.

Despite the severity of the situation, Interior Minister Juan Zapata denies that the entire country is under the control of organized crime.

“Violent deaths are geolocated. Ecuador has 24 provinces. The problem lies in five, namely the drug route,” he explained.

Some statements that Ecuadorian journalist Carolina Mella, who lives in Guayaquil, questions.

“Violence begins to spread across the country. On the coast it is because the drug trade needs ports, but in the mountains it is because storage points operate there, even in Quito,” he explained.

3. War on drugs and overcrowded prisons

The outgoing Ecuadorian government blames the violent rise not only on criminals, but also on previous governments’ low investments in security.

Minister Zapata has set a goal of increasing the number of police officers to 82,000 by 2024.

But there are those who believe that this recipe is incorrect.

“In Ecuador we are experiencing a war on drugs (and we have a government) that aims to put more police and military on the streets, but that does nothing to reduce money laundering,” analyst Luis Carlos Córdova complained in conversation with BBC Mundo. .

“While playing a cat-and-mouse game, chasing gang members and diverting enormous amounts of resources to security that should go to social investments, (the government) is doing nothing to break the economic structures of organized crime,” the researcher denounced . and Central University of Quito Violence Project.

Córdova believes that the government should invest more in educationto prevent school dropouts and thus prevent young people from ending up in criminal organizations.

He also called for strengthening controls on the police and military to tackle their possible links with criminals.

The states of exception that Lasso has issued also do not lead to unanimity.

“We go from decree to decree. We have experienced sixteen decrees. What did they solve? Absolutely nothing,” the presidential candidate said at the time. Luisa Gonzálezclose to the former left-wing president Rafael Correa and criticism of Lasso’s policies.

When a national emergency was declared after Villavicencio’s death, there were seventeen decrees.

For its part, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) has called on the Ecuadorian authorities to step up their fight against human rights prison overcrowdingas it encourages violence and illegal activities, such as the extortion of prisoners by organized gangs.

As of 2022, there were 36,599 people in Ecuadorian prisons, despite the fact that they only had the capacity to house 30,169 people. Four centers had 95% overcrowdingdenounced the IACHR in a report.

What does Noboa propose?

“They need to be promoted deep prison reforms and have an adequate segmentation program, in which the 17%, who are the most violent, keep them completely isolated,” Noboa stated in an interview with Ecuadorian digital media Primicias.

The young politician proposed to install his most innovative proposal floating prisons on ships to intern dangerous criminals far from the coast and prevent them from continuing to operate from prison.

“It would be a temporary measure while we restructure the entire prison system, but we can’t have them like in a five-star hotel. “They have plugs, air conditioners, screens and there are suites in the prisons,” he said.

However, this initiative has raised doubts.

“It’s very difficult to implement it because production of the ships would take more than a year and a half of his presidency“The logistics are complicated and, moreover, the Ecuadorian legal regime does not consider isolation as a punishment for prisoners,” says political scientist Roberto Calderón.

Other Noboa proposals are criminalizing small-scale drug usemake a jury system for serious crimes and invest in technological advancementsuch as drones and radars, to neutralize organized crime on roads and borders.

Many think that these are ambitious measures for the short time that he will be in power a priori. You have no time to lose. (JO)