The Islamist group Hamas today threatened to ‘publicly’ execute Israeli civilian hostages if Israel continues indiscriminate bombing of the Gaza Strip without prior notice to residents.

“Any attack on innocent homes in Gaza without prior notice and warning will be met with the public execution of a hostage,” Abu Obeida, spokesman for the Al Qasam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, said in a statement. “The execution will take place of civilian hostages, not military personnel, and will be broadcast online,” he added.

The ground assault on Gaza is one of the possible and even one of the most likely scenarios for a war in Israel, a terrifying prospect of fighting in the heart of an extremely densely populated city, in underground tunnels and among hostages.

On Monday, Israel ordered the “immediate” cut off of water supplies to the Gaza Strip, amid a “total siege” of the area controlled by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

The future seems written. “Israel will launch the largest joint operation (air/land/sea/space) against Gaza in history,” said John Spencer, an expert at the Modern War Institute of the US Military Academy, on the social network as Twitter).West Point.

“The attacks will first target Hamas command centers and its troops (…) The army will prepare in parallel to invade Gaza,” predicts Alexandre Grinberg of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).

However, urban warfare requires hand-to-hand combat, reduces visibility, multiplies traps, blurs the distinction between civilians and military personnel, and renders armored vehicles virtually useless.

Andrew Galer, a former British officer and now analyst at the intelligence firm Janes, describes a “360-degree battlefield where the threat is everywhere,” from sewers to roofs and false ceilings.

Securing every building means deploying deminers, ladders, ropes and explosives “possibly between gunfire” and in the dark, he explains.

Furthermore, “there is a risk of fratricide” given the dispersal and mobility of the fighters.

About 2.3 million Palestinians live in the Gaza Strip, under an Israeli blockade since 2007. Beneath the maze of narrow, congested streets is an intense network of tunnels dubbed the “Gaza Metro” by the Israeli army.

Hundreds of tunnels were dug under the 14 km long border between Gaza and Egypt’s Sinai for the movement of fighters, weapons and other contraband.

Many were destroyed, but since 2014 Hamas has dug underground roads in its own territory.

So the fighters move 30 to 40 meters deep, out of range of the attacks, and hide rocket launcher systems that bring them to the surface through hatches.

The Israeli military has bombed them heavily in 2021, and while it undoubtedly knows about some of this network, other tunnels remain secret and will complicate its operations.

The operation will be further complicated because Hamas has taken dozens of civilians hostage.

“Israeli society will not forgive the fact that the lives of the hostages are not a priority,” and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “knows this perfectly,” said Sylvaine Bulle, Israel specialist at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS). In France.

The stories that Israeli society will demand will “without a doubt cause temporary conflicts between the military and politicians,” he expects.

In fact, Israel is currently in no position to negotiate, says Kobi Michael, a researcher at the INSS think tank in Tel Aviv.

“The hostage problem cannot be the top priority of Israel,” which will be able to tackle the problem “when Hamas is defeated and weak,” he states bluntly.

A member of the Hamas political leadership in Qatar confirmed this Monday: “There is currently no possibility of negotiations on the issue of the prisoners or anything else.” (JO)