What will happen to the Wagner group after the death of Prigozhin and his successors?

The The death of the head of the Wagner militia and two of its leaders was a serious blow to the paramilitary group. Although the model, which is indirectly linked to the Russian state, is likely to survive, analysts say.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, his right-hand man Dmitri Utkin and the operational commander of the group Valery Chekalov They were killed on Wednesday when the plane they were traveling in crashed near Moscow.

Since then, Russian far-right movements close to the military sector have mourned the group’s demise, said Lucas Webber, co-founder of the investigative network Militant Wire.

“They describe a decadent, corrupt and disconnected political and military elite from the realities of the front. Prigozhin, on the other hand, was considered a courageous character who was not afraid to criticize the military hierarchy. and regularly visited his men in battle,” he told AFP.

For now, the Russian president Vladimir Putinacted quickly and signed Friday a decision That forces members of paramilitary groups to swear an oath to Russiaas ordinary army soldiers do, two days after the alleged death of Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The decree, published on the government’s website, obliges them to do so swear “faithfulness” and “loyalty” to Russia and “to strictly follow the orders of commanders and superiors.”

Many analysts point out that Moscow, despite its problems, cannot do without such an instrument, which has proven its worth over the years in Africa, the Middle East and in the fighting in Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February. .

Revolt

Prigozhin rebelled against the General Staff in late June, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu captured barracks in southern Russia and began a march of his troops towards Moscow.

During the 24-hour study Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused his former ally of ‘treason’.

Prigozhin’s death now gives Putin the freedom to rethink the structure of this parallel empire, which has probably paid for believing it was stronger than it was. And from the sector of Russian private military companies (SMP).

“One lesson Putin probably learned from the June riots is the danger of giving so much power and responsibility to one man,” wrote Catrina Doxsee, a mercenary specialist at the CSIS Washington think tank.

“Russia will try to keep the SMP model for its foreign policy and security assistance, but the market is likely to diversify” to prevent the emergence of another Prigozhin, he added.

Several groups are already on the list, such as Redut, convoy or patriot.

“Making this work requires a series of parameters, including having Putin’s listening and financial capacity and having an instrument to exert influence,” summarizes Lou Osborn of the NGO All Eyes on Wagner and co- author of a book about the group together.

These societies “are much less present and less educated than Wagner, but they have the same structure,” he specifies.

The researcher has already noted the arrival of other groups of former Wagner militiamen and the close ties of these militias to the GRU, the Russian military intelligence services.

As with Wagner, the Kremlin could play a double game. On the one hand, you monitor and support these groups, but keep enough distance not to be held accountable for their actions, especially in Africa.

“It is likely that the Russian state will exert more direct control over SMPs abroadwithout fully admitting that they are under the direct authority of the Kremlin,” said Aditya Pareek of Britain’s Janes Institute of Private Intelligence.

New name

Wagner’s future is currently shrouded in uncertainty.

I can’t say anything now [al respecto]I don’t know,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he was ready to welcome them with open arms, as he did with Prigozhin and many of the mercenaries who took part in the June riots.

“Wagner lived, lives and will live in Belarus,” said Lukashenko. quoted by the state agency Belta. ‘The core [de Wagner] stay here (…) In a few days the whole world will be here, up to 10,000 people,” he added.

That is what specialist Catrina Doxsee thinks the army could adopt “a new name”. that the companies in his orbit could be “divided into separate entities”, without excluding their nationalization.

At the same time, the Investigative Committee of the plane crash in which Prigozhin traveled announced on social networks last Friday: “In the first tasks of the investigation, we found the bodies of the 10 victims at the place where the plane crashed”, northwest of Moscow. (JO)

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