The expert discussed what to expect from the ruble exchange rate next week

Dissatisfaction with the expensive ruble is growing more and more, and next week the depreciation of the Russian national currency may continue. This opinion was expressed by Oleg Syrovatkin, Leading Analyst of the Global Research Department of Otkritie Investments, in an interview with PRIME.

In his opinion, the current situation is similar to the events of a month ago. Thus, on May 23, the standard for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings was reduced to 50% from 80%, on May 25, the Bank of Russia appointed an unscheduled meeting at the rate, the reduction of which was hinted at by the regular review of inflation expectations published on the same day, and on May 27 reduced it by 3%. up to 11%.

These events, the expert recalled, were accompanied by verbal interventions from various ministries and departments, the meaning of which was dissatisfaction with the excessive strengthening of the ruble.

Today, Syrovatkin believes, a very similar situation is observed, only dissatisfaction with the expensive ruble is increasing more and more. Such a conclusion, he believes, can be drawn based on the rhetoric and actions of Russian officials: in particular, the Central Bank raised the ceiling of foreign transfers for citizens of the Russian Federation and residents from friendly states to $1 million, and, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development are considering the possibility of foreign exchange interventions at the expense of budget money. This is not surprising, given that the ruble has become even more expensive since the end of May.

“At the same time, nothing fundamentally changed over the past month: the inflow of foreign currency to the Moscow Exchange remains high, and the demand for it remains low due to the sluggish recovery in imports,” the analyst states.

Next week, the government will consider issues affecting the ruble exchange rate. Syrovatkin predicts that if an effective mechanism is found that will allow interventions against the ruble using the currencies of friendly countries, then next week the ruble may continue to decline.

“If this does not happen, then the scenario of a month ago may repeat itself, when after three days in a row of a sharp weakening of the ruble (May 25-27), this impulse fizzled out, and the trend for the strengthening of the Russian currency resumed,” the expert concluded.