How much could the long holiday that begins in Ecuador affect COVID-19 infections?

Cecilia Salazar waits a few minutes at the ticket office area of ​​the Guayaquil land terminal to get on the platform where she will take the bus that will take her to Riobamba. It’s 3:30 p.m. last Wednesday. She wears her mask, which covers almost her entire face – to avoid contagion of COVID-19 – unlike an older adult who advances at a slow pace with her mask, which literally only covers her mouth, since her nose is exposed to droplets that others emit when talking around them. An environment through which hundreds of users pass whose health status is unknown.

“I hope everyone wears a mask on the bus,” says Cecilia, 50. She says that she will wear this biosecurity element throughout the journey and that she has menthol to somehow improve breathing inside that garment.

The woman goes to the province of Chimborazo for an emergency that occurs on the eve of the start of a five-day holiday that begins with the weekend of October 30. That amount of days and the potential citizen disobedience worries health specialists.

“Most likely, infections will increase. Obviously what this is going to mean. Most people who are vaccinated if they become infected will have a mild illness, which will not require hospitalization and that is important to take into account. However, we must be aware that the pandemic is not over yet, we must continue to take care of ourselves above all for those people most susceptible to serious diseases, those of the elderly, with cancer, diabetes, kidney problems, ”warns Paúl Cárdenas, Researcher at the Institute of Microbiology of the San Francisco de Quito University (USFQ).

Delta variant detected in 75% of cases analyzed

There is an additional factor why health authorities and specialists do not lower their guard, especially on this holiday: the presence throughout the country of the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 and its subvariants, whose transmission capacity is more higher than the other guys.

“It has some mutations that are related to the fact that the contagion window of infected people is longer, that is, people are contagious for much longer. In addition, this virus replicates very well in the upper respiratory tract, that is, in the nose. Even though a person begins to develop symptoms below, such as pneumonia, etc., they still have a high viral load in the upper respiratory tract. And it seems that this virus sticks better to the human receptor, ”explains Cárdenas, who details that this variant has been identified in 75% of the cases analyzed in recent weeks.

The increase in confirmed cases after a holiday with respect to the trend before the holiday period is a reality. In the four days prior to the break for the commemoration of the independence of Guayaquil, which ran from October 8 to 10, the country experienced an increase in infections of up to 250 cases in one day. While after the holiday, the Ministry of Public Health (MSP) recorded daily increases of up to 631 cases, as in October 12, although it could be considered a very short time.

However, on October 19, the most recent confirmed infections totaled 356; on October 20, 569; on October 21, 386. On the other hand, on October 24 and 25, the new cases were placed in 26 and 27 registries, in that same order; but a day later the figure rose to 200. On that last day, the MSP authorities counted 515,859 confirmed cases of COVID-19 since last year.

In recent weeks, María and her two children became ill, who were vaccinated and, from what they believe, the symptoms were mild.

“We still have the doubt of where we got it, if it was on the beach (without having direct contact with anyone) or when we bought some furniture in a place near Santa Elena, where people helped us to load things in the car and there was I eat more contact, but we always wear the mask ”, says the mother of the family.

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Vaccination, an allied strategy for reactivation, but there are still risks

Vaccination has been key to reducing the impact of the pandemic on the health of the population, comment specialists consultations, who recommend various preventive measures to citizens who plan to travel.

In the first place, citizens must take into account the vaccination levels of the cantons or provinces that they plan to visit, since there are several localities where this immunization does not reach 50% of the population that has to receive the two doses, such as Morona Santiago who presents 42%, according to the records of the MSP until the morning of this October 29.

Here you can access the most recent file of confirmed COVID-19 cases.

However, regardless of the site you visit, you should use a mask (that covers the mouth and nose) and constant hand washing. Alberto Campodónico, clinical doctor and intensivist at the Kennedy clinic, refers to the risk of traveling in mass transport and the importance of using this accessory during the trip in taxis or on the buses that the traveler will take to avoid contact with stale air.

“If you travel to the Sierra and you have to keep the windows closed, the air inside the bus does not have an adequate replacement, there is no circulation and so it goes on for two, three, four, five, eight hours. Imagine if there is no adequate physical distancing, ”says the doctor, a professor at the Catholic University of Santiago de Guayaquil (UCSG), who recommends that public transport cooperatives make stops every certain number of hours.

Charlie Santander, a collaborator of the Zaracay company, in Guayaquil, highlights the disinfection process of the units and scheduled breaks during trips.

“Sanitization is done for 20, 25 minutes, while the passengers eat something,” says the clerk.

Whether in the tourist destinations or in the city of the citizen who preferred to stay, it is suggested, as far as possible, to avoid activities in closed places with high attendance.

“In closed, poorly ventilated places, there is a greater risk of having aerosols (small solid or liquid particles of size less than 100 microns that can float in the air for a certain time and that could contain the virus), therefore, the Risk perception must continue to be maintained if you are going to go to a place with many people, ”explains Dr. Washington Alemán, director of the Infectious Disease Prevention Unit of the Municipality of Guayaquil.

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“Visitors must wear a mask”

The doctor asks the public not to relax the care given the erroneous perception that could be had of an apparent normality in the face of the pandemic. This care also applies to those activities with very close friends, which may not be protected as expected and that the use of a mask in these domestic gatherings could mean a chance for life in the face of the risk of death, adds Dr. Campodónico. (I)