The “warm” years are reached when they reach a record level that used to be reached once every 100 years.
Almost every country in the world could experience very hot temperatures once every two years starting in 2030, according to a study published Thursday that highlights the responsibility of the world’s top polluters.
The study, published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, crosses historical emissions data with the commitments made by the five largest emitters in the world (China, the United States, the European Union, India and Russia) before the world climate conference. COP26.
The objective of the study is to make warming predictions by region by the end of the decade. The result shows that 92% of the 165 countries surveyed will experience one in two extremely hot years.
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The “warm” years are reached when they reach a record level that used to be reached once every 100 years in the pre-industrial era.
This conclusion “underscores the urgency and shows that we are heading for a much warmer world for all,” according to Alexander Nauels of the NGO Climate Analytics, a co-author of the study.
To show the contribution to this phenomenon of the main emitters, the researchers recreated what the situation would be like if their emissions were withdrawn since 1991, the year after the publication of the first UN climate experts report (IPCC).
According to this model, the proportion of countries affected by these years of extreme heat would drop to 46%.
Greenland registers temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees higher than the average
For Lea Beusch, from the ETH University of Zurich, the study shows “the clear footprint” of the large emitters in the different regions.
“I think it is very important because, in general, we are talking about abstract amounts of emissions, or world temperatures that we know, but cannot feel,” he explains to AFP.
The disturbance is particularly clear in the African tropics where “the variations from one year to another are generally quite weak”, with which “even the moderate increase that it will experience, compared to other regions, makes it truly leave its known climatic pattern ”, It indicates.
In absolute values, the strongest increases will occur in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, as is already the case today.
The consequences could be mitigated with significant reductions in emissions from countries but, according to the UN, current commitments will lead to an increase of 13.7% until 2030, far from the -50% considered necessary to reach the ideal goal of the Paris agreement. of 2015. (I)
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