Russian economy predicted a slowdown in growth this year and “a lot of risks” – Rosbalt

The growth of the Russian economy in the coming year will slow down from a high 4.2-4.3% at the end of the recovery 2021 to 2.5%, follows from the Bloomberg consensus forecast.

In mid-December, the agency interviewed three dozen economists: the range of their estimates ranged from 1.7% (Kazakhstan research center NAC Analytica) to 3.3% (German Berenberg Bank), RBC reports.

Moreover, outside the Bloomberg survey, there are even more pessimistic estimates: for example, Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank, is targeting an increase of 1.5%. In her opinion, 2022 will bring “strong financial volatility”, which, together with geopolitical risks, will create a very negative background for economic growth.

At the same time, the official macro forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, given back in September-2021, assumes 3% GDP growth in both 2022 and 2023. However, most independent economists do not believe in the prospects for such growth, states the Higher School of Economics (HSE). The Central Bank of the Russian Federation was more cautious in its estimates: the middle of its interval forecast (2-3%) is close to the consensus forecast.

Thus, RBC points out, this year promises the Russian economy to “normalize” the situation after two pandemic years: GDP growth will slow down, and fiscal policy will stabilize. However, experts warn that there are many risks – from high inflation to geopolitics and sanctions.

So, in particular, the consensus forecast for 2022 does not promise a return to the Central Bank’s target of 4%, although VTB Capital, for example, expects inflation to slow down to 4.7%. The average December forecast from Bloomberg is higher – 5.8%, Alfa-Bank predicts 6%.

And from a negative foreign policy agenda, in particular, the ruble can: in Alfa-Bank they believe that at the end of 2022 the rate of the Russian currency will be 80 rubles. per dollar, despite high oil prices (they are still supported by agreements within the framework of OPEC + to reduce production). The Bloomberg consensus forecast, by contrast, assumes a strengthening of the ruble to the level of 70.5 by the end of 2022.

At the same time, experts remind that at the end of last year the situation around Ukraine sharply aggravated: Western politicians and the media stated that Russia had pulled up troops to the Ukrainian borders and was preparing an “invasion” of Ukrainian territory, but the Russian authorities denied this. According to American media reports, the US administration began to discuss a possible tightening of sanctions against Russia, depending on the development of the situation in Ukraine, up to the disconnection of Russian banks from the SWIFT international financial communications system and a ban on the supply of American technological goods such as smartphones to Russia.

However, analysts from rating agencies do not expect such large-scale sanctions in the baseline scenario, but the scenario with Russia disconnecting from SWIFT “could entail significant adverse consequences for investment conditions and the country’s export sector,” the Scope rating agency noted in mid-December.