“Dollar at 100”: the expert told whether to expect a collapse of the ruble

Will the dollar reach the psychological mark of 100 rubles per unit? Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, presented his forecast, writes the Banki.ru portal.

He is confident that the dollar can reach 100 by the end of 2024.

The economist explained that the current exchange rate of the ruble is supported by a number of measures, including the repatriation of foreign exchange earnings by exporters, as well as the sale of foreign currency by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. Investments in rubles are also made more attractive by the high key rate – 16%. However, Russia’s foreign trade was weak in the final months of last year, with a surplus of less than $10 billion a month, which may not be enough to offset the country’s major currency outflows.

Potavin admitted that so far the exchange rate has stabilized around 87.5–92.5 rubles, but there has been no significant strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, although an increase in foreign currency sales from exporters was expected at the end of the month to pay the December mineral extraction tax and excess profit tax for 2023. In addition, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sells foreign currency and gold worth 16.5 billion rubles every day.

However, soon a compromise option will likely be proposed with a gradual easing of foreign exchange restrictions – from the current level of sales of 90-100% of foreign exchange earnings, obligations will be reduced to 50-60% by mid-summer,” the expert did not rule out. He believes that in the coming month the Kremlin will choose which path to follow, because it will be almost impossible to fulfill the 2024 budget with the dollar exchange rate below 90 rubles.

The expected reduction in foreign currency sales from the National Welfare Fund after February 6 may again increase pressure on the ruble. And taking into account the slowdown or cessation of foreign currency sales from the National Welfare Fund by the end of the first quarter, it can be assumed that the dollar exchange rate will exceed 100 rubles by the end of this year.