At the February meeting, the Central Bank may refrain from adjusting the key rate, says Bogdan Zvarich, chief analyst of the Banki.ru portal.
According to him, the actions that the regulator took in the second half of 2023 made it possible to keep official inflation at the end of the year below 7.5–7.42%, as evidenced by Rosstat data.
Currently, the Central Bank continues to analyze the situation in the economy. “The effect of tightening monetary policy manifests itself over time (usually the lag is one or two quarters), and now the regulator can take a wait-and-see approach, assessing the impact of the steps taken on inflation,” the analyst predicts.
If inflation pressure stabilizes and then begins to slow down, the Bank of Russia may begin to reduce the rate, the expert notes. At the same time, attention will be paid to both the level of inflation itself and the level of inflation expectations of Russians.
At the same time, Zvarich believes, the key rate, like bank rates, are at their maximum values, and if there are stable trends towards reducing inflation, banks may begin to lower deposit rates in the second half of the year – even preventively, without waiting for Central Bank meetings.
Source: Rosbalt
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