Manuel Alcántara

The balance of the year in such a complex and heterogeneous region as Latin America is an exercise that requires a balance between the selected relevant issues and the countries that are the subject of attention. Most of them have a transverse character, but sometimes the profile is singular. In this task, I clarify the situation at the end of the year through a series of succinctly stated proper names, risking to leave the others no less important in preparation. A useful exercise for imagining 2024 themes and scenarios.

Nayib Bukele led El Salvador to violate its constitution re-election, one of the historical evils of Latin American politics, following the steps taken by his neighbor three decades ago Daniel Ortega. Protected by an unprecedented propaganda machine, his example crosses borders under the guise of apparently contributing to the control of one of the scourges of the region: the violence in which Colombia, Mexico and Paraguay They are among the five worst ranked in the Global Index of Organized Crime for 2023, which analyzes all countries of the world.

Economic elites from Guatemala They maintain control of the country aided by a very weak and deinstitutionalized party system, low rates of public participation and a highly corrupt political class. The elections held in 2023 brought victory Bernardo Arevalo, someone outside of that scenario. But the most recalcitrant sectors of the judiciary and prosecution are doing everything to prevent him from taking office despite the social support he has, including the majority indigenous population in the country, but also the international community.

For almost eighty years, the struggle between Peronism and anti-Peronism defined Argentine politics, but arrival Javier Miley to the position of president meant a big change with unforeseeable consequences. Furthermore, he sympathizes with the current times of individual politicians who have no party machinery, theoretically challenge the status quo, channel social frustration and show radical positions on identity issues.

Claudia Sheinbaum She is not a covered candidate of Morena, the presidential movement Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Even if this is only a false difference from the classic practice of the PRI, the hegemonic ruling party Mexico in seven decades it has practically disappeared today. Her nomination was the product of a process of internal consultation with the militants through polls after the approval of the leader who placed in her his expectations for the continuity of 4T, the term given to his visionary project.

WITH Uruguay and Costa Rica, Chili it tops various rankings that measure the performance of democracy in Latin America. However, after four years of efforts, she failed to implement the desired constitutional reform despite the enormous amount of work done. This shows how difficult it is today to establish a minimal consensus in situations of acute ideological and emotional polarization.

Colombia’s 2019 local elections foretold a turnaround that put a leftist candidate in the presidency for the first time in 2022, taking power amid huge expectations. Bet on Gustavo Petro per total peace He promoted a plural ministerial cabinet, which, however, he disbanded after a few months. Municipal elections in October meant the defeat of the government, reproducing in reverse what happened four years earlier. Medellinwhere a candidate close to Peter triumphed in 2019, he witnessed the return of his opponent, Federico Gutierrezwho received 73.6% of the votes.

Since the beginning of the century China managed to become the first commercial and investment partner in Latin America. Present in almost all countries, only Paraguay recognizes Taiwanit has a soft power whose expression is difficult to measure. Chancayon the Peruvian coast 60 km from Limeis a large harbor work that symbolizes this presence while representing the opening of the continent to the ocean. Quiet. Brazil It will also be a user of the port, reducing the average cargo transportation time by two weeks.

He Amazon is the embodiment of various agenda-related arguments COP28 topped by Latin American governments. The fossil fuel cap contrasts with Brazil’s ambivalent stance on proposing to join OPEC as an observer country or that of the recalcitrant Colombian government in matters related to mining and the extraction of gas and oil. But also Mining of Panama it has shaken the life of a country whose economy is going through a bad situation due to the reduction due to drought in the daily number of ships sailing the canal. Since 1997, opencast copper mining has represented 5% of the country’s annual GDP and is now catalyzing popular environmental awareness mobilized as rarely before.

The Beast is a summary of the exodus that is devastating a good part of the region, as well as the cork Darien. A train that mirrors Mexico’s rail system where around half a million migrants have boarded its freight cars on the last leg of the long route north. Mainly Venezuelans, but also Haitians and Ecuadorians, as well as from other continents, gather in search of the “American dream”, even generating cooperative tasks through social networks that reduce the role previously played by human traffickers called coyotes.

He Essequibo It is most likely the Venezuelan country, but no international court has ruled on it. Encouraging the unwavering commitment of the population through a plebiscite that supports it from an autocratic standpoint and without any procedural guarantees is a futile, irresponsible and sinister cry. It presupposes adherence to a hollow and manipulative nationalism that hides the purpose of distraction to maintain authoritarian rule of power. Nicolas Maduro even at the cost of the threat of war. (OR)