Tomorrow we enter the tenth year of the economic crisis that began in mid-2014. The price of Ecuadorian oil in the first half of 2014 averaged $96, and in the period 2015-2023 the average was 54 dollars. By June 2014, Correato had already spent all the enormous oil revenues he had received since 2007, what previous governments had saved, promised future oil revenues, and submitted billions of papers to the Central Bank to issue Ecuadorian dollars. From that date to May 2017, Rafael Correa doubled the foreign debt and handed power to Lenín Moreno to take responsibility for the problem.

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Moreno received substantial support from the IMF for a three-year program of economic stabilization, which was only partially implemented due to the weakness of governments that prevented them from taking radical measures. The result is that between 2014 and 2022 the economy only grew cumulatively by 1.5%. Since the population has increased by 7.2%, this means that output per capita is lower in 2022 than in 2014.

As of 2023, the country no longer has this financial support, the necessary measures have not been taken, and the Constitutional Court sponsored a public consultation whereby the country sacrifices its oil revenues. The expected growth for 2024 is 0.8%, similar to population growth. There is no light at the end of the tunnel of the crisis that started 8 years ago.

Ecuador, on the other hand, is very dynamic in agro-exports, aquaculture and fisheries…

Around 2014-2015, the world had its eyes on Greece, which was going through a terrible crisis, comparable to that of Ecuador due to the lack of its own currency, rampant and inefficient public spending that made Greece an expensive country to produce. As Greece is part of the European Union, the European Central Bank, Germany (which is the leader in the EU) and the IMF (the “troika”) put pressure on Athens to implement a very strict economic program. The Greeks elected a populist government whose banner was anti-adjustment and which consulted the people on whether they accepted the troika’s plan. The alternative was leaving the euro. Due to this parallelism, on July 15, 2015, we dedicated this space to the Greek crisis (Furies against Athens).

The Greek people resolutely refused the adjustment. But in the end the Government applied it. Very difficult years for the Greek people followed: there was a lot of emigration, and as the birth rate was low, the population decreased. The adjustment is still incomplete. But the result is that public finances have been sorted out, competitiveness has been gained and the economy has grown. Between 2014 and 2022, when Ecuador grew a cumulative 1.5%, Greece 8%. While GDP per capita in Ecuador fell by 5%, in Greece it grew by 14%. While Ecuador’s GDP per capita is estimated to not grow in 2024, Greece’s outlook is 2%.

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Greece’s potential growth is weak, dependent on tourism. Ecuador, on the other hand, is very dynamic in agro-exports, aquaculture and fisheries, and has great mining and oil potential. But we refuse to cut unproductive public spending and improve its quality, end fuel subsidies and promote employment with more flexible laws.

The question arises: what is better to take measures that cause great discomfort in the short term, but allow us to return to the path of growth, or to live stagnantly, on a knife’s edge? (OR)