Author: Pedro Morazan

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will be the hosts COP28 (Conference of the Parties), which will be held in the city of Dubai between 30 November and 12 December 2023 and which has already received a letter of accession to the new international climate change regime. The agenda of the summit is quite ambitious and needs to be analyzed in the best possible way in order to be able to see the challenges and opportunities that Latin American countries have in the face of the impacts of climate change.

The COP28 agenda proposed by its President Sultan Al Jaber was already announced in June this year. The summit will have to summarize in a political declaration a huge process that lasted two years, with more than 1,000 accompanying documents presented and three technical dialogues that attracted hundreds of experts and specialists. Summary report technical stages managed to summarize everything in 17 key messages. To be honest, this report presents an unflattering picture of the results so far.

In my opinion, there are three fundamental concepts in the language of climate change that must be dealt with dialectically when dealing with the issue, that is, in their mutual relationship. It’s about reductionthe adjustment and financing. The main points of the agenda are related in one way or another to these three concepts and in any case are of utmost importance to determine whether we are working effectively and for the benefit of all equally. Given that the main goal of the negotiation process is to keep the increase in the average temperature of the planet below 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, it is necessary to precisely determine the appropriate paths that global emissions should take at the national level. It is therefore obvious that mitigation measures play a central role.

Reduction

Mitigation, in short, is the reduction of greenhouse gas concentrations. This reduction can be achieved either by reducing the source (fossil energy) or by increasing the capacity of carbon sinks, such as tropical forests, to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. He Mitigation work program in its first year focused on accelerating the just energy transition, through two global dialogues on energy and transport systems. Based on this work, COP28 should make the first decision that marks serious progress. IN Bonn fought a fierce battlein June this year, to include these topics.

The work program is designed to encourage cooperation between countries and international experts in specific areas and to link mitigation and public and, above all, private investment. This year’s investment-focused events fostered coordination between key initiatives aimed at supporting implementation Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), but they also highlighted structural issues such as the rapid acceleration of net investment globally or the need to increase it especially in emerging and developing economies. It would be desirable to promote good mitigation results in World balance and contribute, for example, to the mobilization of investment opportunities with a regional perspective. Regional financial forums play an important role here.

Adaptation

According to the United Nations definition, adaptation refers to the adjustments of ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli and their effects. Simply put, countries and communities must develop adaptation solutions and implement actions to respond to the current and future impacts of climate change. Adaptation was the central theme of the COP27 negotiations, addressing key areas such as the Global Adaptation Goal (GGA), the Adaptation Committee, the Nairobi Work Program and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs).

Considering the presence of hurricanes and recurring floods, the issue of adaptation is of crucial importance for countries like Honduras or the Caribbean islands. Any infrastructure, agricultural or social safety net projects, among others, must be implemented taking into account or adapting to the occurrences of floods, fires or droughts.

Financing

Lack of financing has been one of the biggest problems dividing rich and poor nations since the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” was coined at the Earth Conference in 1992. Given that industrialized countries historically created more than 80% of the emissions that today especially affect the poorest countries, their share of responsibility is greater. Therefore, in 2009, industrialized countries pledged to jointly contribute $100 billion each year starting in 2020. Unfortunately, there is still a gap between promise and reality. In 2020, crowdfunding for climate change amounted to US$83.3 billion. Multilateral and bilateral public adaptation finance flows to developing countries were reduced by 15% to $21 billion in 2021. Furthermore, climate finance continues to be provided mainly in the form of loans, much of which was non-concessional. Added to this is the fact that $100 billion is only a fraction of what is needed to help developing countries meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement. According to the latest Financial Needs Analysis, developing countries need at least $6 trillion by 2030 to cover less than half of their NDC targets.

The issue of financing climate change mitigation and adaptation measures will once again be one of the most controversial aspects of COP28. Latin America and the Caribbean, as a region, needs about $77 billion in investment between 2020 and 2030 to meet its climate goals, of which public investment can only cover about a quarter. According to estimates from Update of climate funds, climate change financing in LAC is highly concentrated in a few countries; Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica and Colombia receive about half of the region’s funding. Obviously, this group shows that there is a combination of relevance and political realism in negotiations. Mitigation activities, including forest protection and afforestation, receive more than five times more from multilateral climate funds than adaptation activities, at USD 3.4 billion and USD 670 million, respectively. Since 2003, a total of USD 5 billion has been approved for 550 projects in the Latin American region, at the expense of multilateral climate funds.

Challenges

Signs of the energy transition, especially the gradual abolition of fossil fuels, as well as the fulfillment of high expectations created in Sharm-el-Sheikh COP27 eye financing losses and damages, will likely be the litmus test of this year’s debates. COP28 is taking place in a rather tense geopolitical context, characterized by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the US-China conflict and the worsening of the conflict in the Middle East, following the terrorist attack by Hamas on October 7. The question is whether this background will in any way affect the dynamics of the negotiations. The results of the latest negotiations between China and the US do not look very promising. The absence of any mention of climate change shows us that the agreement between the two superpowers is nothing innovative. It takes some important technical measures, but does nothing to curb the rapid expansion of coal-fired power plants in China, for example. President Joe Biden’s recent decision not to attend the conference is also not very flattering.

As is known, Latin America is already among the regions most affected by climate change.. The fact that countries in this region depend heavily on agro-exports or resource extraction and carbon-intensive activities for their economic development implies enormous challenges when considering a just transition. Social and political instability is strongly linked to the volatility of export prices for the raw materials on which the region depends. Strong green and just transition policies are key to achieving regional and global climate goals, for which financing remains a major challenge.

What do the delegations of most countries on the continent carry in their luggage to COP28? Well, first of all, the eternal structural problem of inequality, which is still one of the most difficult challenges in the region. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) remains the most unequal region in the world. In the post-pandemic world, LAC countries, mired in an economic and health crisis, are probably more concerned with economic recovery than environmental protection. However, framing these two issues as exclusive or perhaps antagonistic opposites may not be the most intelligent strategy.

One of the most important concepts in the dynamics of reflection is the concept just a transition, introduced by the International Labor Organization (ILO), which defines it as follows: “To green the economy in the fairest and most inclusive way possible for all stakeholders, creating opportunities for decent work and leaving no one behind.” This concept has serious implications that will have to be taken into account when implementing the necessary measures, both in the field of mitigation and in the field of adaptation. In the case of Latin America, countries such as Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Honduras and Paraguay have included just transition goals and measures in their NDCs. This is, however, a first step that could be crucial as the debate turns to COP28.

The analysis of the last conferences shows that the ALC failed to present itself with one voice. On the one hand, taking more radicalized positions resulting from populist processes, either from the right or from the left, and on the other hand, denialist attitudes did not give good results, neither for counterparts nor for regional interests. The most important thing would be to develop a coordinated point of view, at the level of Latin America, which puts the region’s challenges on the table for discussion, especially in terms of adaptation and requirements regarding financing and, why not, the implementation of damages. and loss fund. (OR)