Javier Milei will start his administration a few days after Daniel Noboa. They represent similarities and differences that help envision the paths they can take. Both opened their way to the Presidency with speeches that ushered in a new era. Milei did this with a series of concrete proposals – many of them debatable and dangerous – that constitute the government’s program and a profound transformation of the development model. Noboa appealed and continues to appeal to his personal characteristics without setting a course, and therefore without a program. Milei used the few weeks between his election and the inauguration date to form his cabinet. Noboa used that same time to travel internationally without an agenda befitting a president-elect and took office with an incomplete cabinet. Milei faced this issue through agreements with some political forces that he harshly attacked in the campaign, but the negotiations were public and subordinated to his goals. The deals reached by Noboa – that is, his group – were opaque and, from what his new partners discovered, they were the ones who set the course.

It could be argued that the differences between the two are caused by the political conditions in their respective countries, which is only partly true, since the same type of polarization prevails in both. The split, as they call it in Argentina, is between Peronism and anti-Peronism, the same way it is in Ecuador between Koreanism and anti-Koreanism. The big difference is that Argentina’s campaign revolved around that point, while Ecuador’s avoided it. Milei triumphed with a very clear anti-Peronist speech, which forces him to a drastic break. On the contrary, Noboa was careful to do the same, which he repeated in his inaugural speech, which will make it difficult, and even prevent the break he announces by appealing to his youth. Both have minority representation in the legislature, but one is willing to bang on the table, and the other is just timidly knocking on the door.

Certainly, it is very likely that due to the radicality and unsustainability of the proposal and the immoderation of the libertarian in Argentina, there will be a conflict with very serious consequences. However, it must be taken into account that lukewarmness can lead to disastrous results. In order to avoid or at least postpone it, Milei has the opportunity to look down, prioritize inflation control and gradual change, that is, a dose of political realism that does not suit his temperament and his goals. In the name of this same realism, Noboa left the initiative to legislative groups that will oppose any attempt at change and, consequently, further close the space for making the economic decisions necessary to prevent the widening and deepening of gaps with dramatic social consequences. .

Finally, in Argentina, a full period of rule begins, in which the president can forge alliances, especially with governors and mayors. Noboa will be barely 18 months old, which, for the purposes of agreements and alliances, will be reduced to less than half by the start of the campaign. Comparison is never hateful, even if it ends, as in this case, by pointing out that things are worse than the worst. (OR)