The possibility of Donald Trump being re-elected as President of the United States is real. In all important research lately, it seems to be leading. If he were to be elected, several current international processes would change dramatically because his visions are different from those supported by traditional American politics. Chief among them is isolationism.

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To isolate oneself from global problems and concentrate on domestic ones is not a recent vision, nor is it exclusively republican. In fact, it took a long time, for example, for the United States to become involved in two world wars of the last century. In the first of them, it took almost four years to reach a decision, and in the second, more than two years, and his entry facilitated a direct Japanese attack on his territory. Since then, the United States has probably been the most proactive international actor in history, due to the military, political and cultural supremacy achieved in the 20th century, but the world is changing.

The United States remains the world’s largest economy and by far the largest military power.

The MAGA movement, whose acronym in Spanish could be “Make America Great Again”, led by Trump, follows the rhetoric of its leader and creates the image that international organizations and cooperation are instruments used by other countries to take advantage of the United States and that this nation itself would was better and more advanced, considering its market, economy and natural resources. During his presidency, Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement, which was negotiated for many years and designed as an instrument for international competition by bringing together several Asian economies. NATO’s stability was threatened because he demanded more European financial contributions and even hinted at the possibility of withdrawal. He abandoned the Paris accords on climate change, replaced Iran’s denuclearization commitments with hostility toward Tehran, imposed taxes on imports and promoted an aggressive policy against migration from Latin America.

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If he is re-elected, and if current rhetoric materializes, US support for Ukraine would decrease or disappear, causing a significant disengagement from the European Union and the United Kingdom, not necessarily implying an end to the war; The pressure on China would be stronger, and the global economic fragmentation greater. No global climate change mitigation program, in which Washington is indispensable, would have a guarantee of continuity.

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The United States remains the world’s largest economy and by far the largest military power. Its economic and political isolation, and the absence of norms that moderate its international power, would be very costly for nations that depend significantly on primary exports or that are vulnerable to natural disasters, or the use of force as an instrument of foreign policy. policy. This is the case with the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. If Trump is elected, the world will be different and ultimately riskier. (OR)