Why would anyone other than Rafael Correa want to win the presidency to end Guillermo Lasso’s term? Correa is an exception. Because of this, Lasso went in search of a replacement with one of his bishops or, failing that, negotiations with a new ruler, which Lasso ultimately did not accept: his legislative support in exchange for Diana Salazar’s head, control of the courts, defeating impunity and thus being able to be a candidate for vice president in 2025 with another chip of his own. In the coming days, there will be more clarity on whether Daniel Noboa will put his signature on that Faustian pact.

Before December, the new president will take over for an abbreviated period, amid a meltdown whose resolution is in doubt, one very low balance account, $1.3 billion monthly payments, very high external service debt due to rising interest, $1.6 billion unpaid bills, requests from courts and local authorities for more funds, an expected decrease in oil GDP of 7% in 2024 as a result of the popular decision to close ITT, an electorate with expectations of higher public spending and a strong political bloc in the Assembly that wants its failure if he rejects the Faustian Pact.

Noboa intends to overcome these obstacles and be re-elected in 2025. Faced with so much adversity and the field controlled by his opponents, he decides on the only play he has left: to surprise the goalkeeper with a goal from half the field. He went to wash-

They will publicly tell the US government and multilaterals that, as things stand, the country will enter a moratorium in 2026 or 2027, and privately that there is a risk that in 2025 Correa will return and Ecuador will become another Venezuela. In order to avoid this, Noboa claims that he cannot continue with fiscal austerity, on the contrary, he must reduce taxes and increase public investments. For this, you need to be approved for a bridging loan. Once he is re-elected, he will deal with long-term issues.

How will Washington receive this proposal? Perhaps Biden and the secretary of state took it well: Noboa’s election confirms that most Ecuadorians reject Correa’s return. But perhaps the finance minister is emphasizing that despite all the support given to Lasso, Ecuador has not implemented structural reforms and there is no guarantee that Noboa, if re-elected, will do so. As for the multilateral organizations, they are unlikely to accept the proposal because it means giving money to a country that has already been given a lot, up to the quota limit, without an adjustment program.

After Nobo’s meeting with the investment bank, country risk rose 74 points, higher than Ukraine, which is under attack, Pakistan, where Taliban terrorists bombed an air base that day, and less than Lebanon, which fears its Hezbollah guerrillas will drag it into war between Hamas and Israel.

It follows that Noboa would achieve his goal only if Biden very decisively supports him with multilaterals. If the proposal is not accepted, Noboa would have to turn to China to pre-sell all remaining crude oil from this decade. But there will be less oil as a result of the ill-fated public consultation.

That half-court goal… Will he score? (OR)