Ecuador has elected Daniel Nobo as president for this transitional period resulting from the early termination of Mr. Lasso’s mandate due to his crucifixion. My explanation for the result is a combination of different factors at the same time.

1.- The situation in the country: the situation experienced by the citizens is dramatic, to the extent that it has caused thousands of compatriots to leave the country. Crime has spread to neighborhoods and commerce, severely affecting activity and causing permanent closures in many cases. Many support Correismo as part of the cause due to his open borders policy and termination of the Manta base agreement. Noboa was completely immune to that question, no one can point him out, and between the two options he represented the hopeful option of taking measures to attack the essential core of the problem.

2.- The murder of Fernando Villavicencio: this criminal act, very sensitive for citizens, marked the agenda of both the first and second round (with the murder of those arrested in the case). Daniel Noboa never used the issue politically; His only expression was solidarity with the family and he declared his support for the investigation impartial. The second option’s handling of the case ended up mobilizing Villavicencio’s votes towards Noboa.

3.- Steel ceiling: it is well said that Koreanism has a very strong and loyal vote base covering 33 points. From then on, growth becomes uphill, not to mention after 45 points. The tactical error of the revolution’s election strategy is to direct the speech in the first round to its loyal base with heavy attacks on opponents, making it very difficult for them to gain allies in the second round, all of whom have previously been attacked. Another factor behind the steel ceiling is former President Correa himself; He diverts attention from his candidates,

He becomes the virtual candidate who destroys any reconciliation speech the campaign tries to convey. The young voice does not like the speech of revenge and hatred and moves away.

4.- Daniel Noboa: of course, another very important factor in the victory is the candidate himself, his young image, his academic preparation and his courage for taking this path. Despite the fact that he was not a great communicator, he connected with the electorate, sometimes with few words, sometimes with silence, often with networks and digital communication, sometimes with the memory of his father and the work of his mother, and especially through his charismatic wife who knew how to follow the communication. In Daniel’s favor are his successful participation in debates, his conciliatory speech far from conflict and the fact that he managed to find hope for a generational change in politics in his image.

Daniel Noboa has a complex path, but not an impossible one. Changes can be made in a few months. Everything will depend on your team, which must divide the fronts into at least four groups: political, economic, security and health. (OR)