Inflation in Russia may exceed the Central Bank’s September forecast of 6-7% if monthly price growth remains near the high levels of 2021, Bank of Russia analysts believe.
“In recent weeks, price growth has been following the high trajectory of 2021. If the monthly price increase until the end of the year is close to it, inflation may exceed the current forecast of the Bank of Russia,” says the bulletin “What Trends Are Saying” from the Central Bank’s Department of Research and Forecasting.
In October–December 2021, inflation on average per month was about 1% (in October 2021 – 1.11%, in November – 0.96%, in December – 0.82%).
During January–September 2023, prices in the country increased by 4.6%. Inflation in September 2023 was 0.87% after 0.28% in August.
Taking into account seasonal adjustments, the growth of consumer prices in September (month-on-month) accelerated to 14.6% versus 9.4% in August, Central Bank analysts note. Annual inflation rose to 60% in September from 5.2% a month earlier. As of October 9, the annual inflation estimate increased to 6.3%.
“Stable indicators of price dynamics indicate that inflationary pressure remains at an elevated level,” the Central Bank department emphasizes. He notes the predominance of pro-inflationary risks over the medium term.
“The possibility of passing on increased producer costs to final prices in the context of continued high consumer activity maintains inflationary pressure at elevated levels,” the document says.
Source: Rosbalt
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