The Brics countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) were born 20 years ago, on the one hand as a concept of Goldman Sachs that they will be great future powers, and on the other hand as a certain reality (they began to act relatively together in certain international forums ). The Brics have a combined GDP higher than the GDP of the G7 in PPP terms (GDP adjusted for the purchasing power of their currencies against the dollar), and in nominal terms it is 26% of world GDP. Did they live up to expectations? Very moderately, because in order to measure it, let’s remember that, compared to 26% of GDP, they represent almost 40% of the world’s population, that is, together they are barely at the middle level and, with the exception of China (although imams have always expressed doubts about their future), does not appear to reach important levels. Now Brics is looking for new allies to expand its potential, such as Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran. For what purpose? There are two possible trends.

One: slight trend. It would be about the formation of a “southern” block that would provide a relative counterweight to the West, such as expanding its presence in international forums, such as the United Nations (veto power in the Security Council) or the IMF, where “only” they have 15% of the votes. And add to that financial issues, such as the strengthening of the Brics Development Bank, which has existed since 2015 and aims to be a complementary axis to the IMF and the World Bank.

Two: hard trend. It is pushed by China with its clear vision of increasing its strategic weight, undermining Western “dominance” and turning it into the central axis of the world, for which it needs allies and subjects, all the more so when its growth energy seems to be seriously slowing down. For this, political weight in world organizations, with greater decision-making power, is necessary. And increase the financial power that goes through exchange operations between its central banks, develop means of payment or own transactions and something important: that the yuan (or the Bric currency) one day replace the dollar. Remember that a power deepens its power when its currency is central to the world. Is the latter possible? The probability is minimal, at least for a few decades. Because? Simple answer: when will economic entities be willing to carry out operations, but above all their savings, in a currency other than the dollar? Answer yourself, dear reader.

It is likely that Brics will achieve greater political weight and somewhat more on the financial front, although all limited. Reason? Maybe because of my own stress. Some of them want to be in BRICS with one foot, but by no means leave one foot in the West; others fear that they are overly dependent on China; and, finally, there are strong internal disagreements: for example, India-China relations are traditionally conflictual, and Saudi Arabia and Iran contest Muslim leadership. And always watch out for the dangerous interests behind Brics. We hope that Brics is light.

Note: let’s mention by the way that a few years ago, civets (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) were alternately bred as another smaller group, but with good potential… which does not seem to be confirming either! (OR)