The big surprise of the special election on August 20 was the vote for candidate Daniel Nobo. Although the polls predicted it, it was hard to believe that it managed to rise 20 percentage points in just one week. A real political phenomenon that leaves him very close to the presidential throne.

From the debate, in which he stood out with his concise and simple speech, with composure, the intention to vote began to rise like foam, at the expense of rivals like Topić, Otto and Yaku, who at some point threatened to consolidate his position in second place.

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It is possible to read that there was a catharsis phenomenon of voting in favor of the option that was presented as new, without being part of the political establishment, something that was not so exact considering that Álvaro, his father, was a five-time presidential candidate. But in politics, perceptions are reality and it is as if the young former member of parliament who discreetly acted as president of the Development Committee, not participating in the tiresome confrontations between the Government and the opposition, eventually capitalized on the desire for an alternative that breaks with the past.

The comparison of this October 15 second round with the one produced in 2006 between the young Rafael Correa and Noboa Sr., who lost to the latter, is no stranger to political analysis. Today, however, the roles are reversed: while Luisa represents the old with that arrogant “we’ve done it before” speech, Daniel, identifying with the new, has the upper hand if he’s not wrong.

It will be easier for him to count the votes of the six former candidates who were left out of the presidential race, and who generally dominantly represent the anti-Coreist movement. Somehow, the 2021 final was re-released, but with a better placed Nobo with his 24% compared to Lasso’s 18%. And continue to grow with less resistance.

(…) Daniel, identifying with the new, has an advantage if he does not make mistakes.

The “celebration” of Luisa and her Civil Revolution movement south of Quito on Sunday night could not have been more revealing. Despite his victory, he could not overcome the harsh voices of correísmo, who had to be content with repeating his 33%, staying far from victory in the first round. His smile was forced, revealing more concern than joy. The defining campaign looks very steep for her and her mentor.

Of course, the assassination of Fernando Villavicenci moved the shortened election process and in its own way, overshadowing it, gave room for surprise by predisposing the voter to something innovative.

His replacement, Zurita, collected an important sympathy vote, enough to reach an honorable third place. In addition, with its list of representatives in the national assembly as the second in number of votes.

The result of the day, to Noboa’s surprise, is that Ecuador has not managed to free itself from the logic of polarization between Correísmo and anti-Correísmo which closes spaces and prevents political agreements that enable the management of the country. Limited to the state of the main cause in question: the return to the political scene of former President Rafael Correa. That he can continue to wait at least until 2025. (OR)