Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal and the inability to use the sea corridor for grain exports are forcing Ukraine to export it by river, road and rail transport, writes Bloomberg.
According to the calculations of Argus Media analysts cited by Bloomberg, the cessation of the export of Ukrainian grain by sea will reduce the monthly export potential of Ukraine by about half, from 7–8 million tons to 4 million tons, and will also add logistical problems.
One of the alternative routes is through Ukrainian ports on the Danube River, along which the border between Ukraine and Romania runs, and then, through Romanian ports, to world markets. Kiev is already using this route: the volume of grain exported along the Danube increased from about 1.4 million tons to 2 million tons per month last year.
However, due to the heat wave in Europe, the Danube has become shallow: according to the Romanian Water Administration, the water level in the river this year is 40% lower than the average water level in July. This makes it difficult to supply grain by large ships: it forces them to be loaded incompletely or to use smaller ships for these purposes.
Ukraine will also be able to use rail and road routes for the export of grain, but it is difficult to export significant volumes in this way. Thus, according to UkrAgroConsult data cited by the agency, Kyiv exported no more than 1.2 million tons of grain per month by rail, and the volume of grain exports by trucks did not exceed 676.7 thousand tons per month.
Source: Rosbalt
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