What is at stake in these elections is very big and difficult. Although, due to the blindness and ignorance of Montecristi’s assemblymen, the Government and Assembly resulting from the elections will be only transitional, they will have to perform gigantic tasks in various aspects. Economically, they will have to find a way to fill the fiscal gap, which, according to the Fiscal Policy Observatory’s predictions, would exceed 5,000 million dollars in December of this year. A drop in tax collection, which is one of the causes, could be compounded by a drop in oil revenues if the Yasuní ban is approved in a popular consultation and fuel subsidies are maintained. As if something is missing, they will have to face the effects of the El Niño phenomenon. The solution will be new aggressive borrowing, like that of recent years correat, with little prospect that it will be done under the soft conditions of multilateral organizations.

Politically, it is important to arm the entire state framework, starting with the appointment of the definitive authorities of the institutions that, due to minor tensions, were led by managers for months. It is about putting the house in order, which requires a joint effort of the state authorities. In other words, it will be necessary, essential, to reach a consensus on mid-term and long-term goals, that is, something far from what is usual in our environment and completely against imposition with a heavy hand, which will surely be a test for those who reach the Presidency and the Assembly. To this will be added the election activity that will start on the same day when the next government takes office.

So far, none of the candidates have given any sign of concern about how they will face that dark, black, gloomy horizon. It is obvious that it is not in his projections. Their calculations boil down to questions that will secure the necessary votes to enter the second round. Among them, the fight against insecurity is already presenting itself as the main area of ​​dispute, in which the trend points to bukelism. On any other occasion, the candidacy of a mercenary who claims to have participated in several wars (the last motivated by a conversation with a Madrid taxi driver) would be another of the craziness that always springs up at election time. Now it will be the parameter by which all others will be measured. Principles, ideologies and values ​​are left out of the game, as if the electoral contest does not have among its goals the political formation of citizens.

The most likely result of this may be that the country is entering a moment of greatest upheaval…

The most likely result of this could be for the country to enter a moment of greater convulsion due to two causes combining to produce a catastrophic scenario. First of all, the president, whoever he is, will not be satisfied with a mandate of eighteen months. To achieve his reelection, he will run the economy like a rag and put dollarization at risk (if he doesn’t decide to eliminate it in one fell swoop). On the other hand, the Assembly will be a breeding ground for more voracious and poisonous snakes than those that formed it recently. The future of their political organizations and, above all, their personal interests will be at stake in that space, and in a very short time frame. In short, a catastrophic horizon. (OR)