In the general elections on August 20, we will choose parliamentarians and finalists for the second presidential round. Citizens’ attention will be focused on these elections, and something even more important will be overlooked: a national consultation, which is presented as the protection of uncontacted peoples from being contaminated by civilization. When in reality it is about giving up oil as a source of wealth and accepting the consequent collapse of the national economy and general impoverishment.

The paradox is that two institutions designed to control the abuse of executive and legislative power conspired to cause the next economic collapse: the Constitutional Court (CS) and the Electoral Council.

The court, with 5 votes out of 9 judges, welcomed the public consultation to deprive the Ecuadorian state of the right to exploit natural resources. Ecuador’s major oil fields have been producing since the 1970s; others, of secondary importance, were developed in 1990. All these fields are in decline and require large investments to prevent their production from collapsing. The only new fields are ITT, of which Tiputini and Tambococha are producing 55,000 barrels per day (bpd) and Ishpingo is under development. These fields would have produced more than 100,000 bpd but for the repeated obstacles to their development posed by the CC, which approved a consultation proposed by environmental activists to dismantle the infrastructure in these fields, and set a one-year deadline for them to complete dismantling after winning the inquiry That.

Ecuador exports 313,000 bpd between oil and derivatives. Without ITT, production would fall to 258,000 bpd. We imported 184,000 bpd of fuel, that is, net export would drop from 129,000 bpd to 74,000. The value of exports minus import costs was an average of 57 million dollars per month in the first quarter of this year. Exports would fall by $100 million a month with production cut by 55,000 bpd, making fuel imports more valuable than oil exports.

Gentlemen, presidential candidates, do everything to lose the election.

The Treasury and GAD would stop receiving oil revenue. There would be no way to pay public sector employees, and neither would contractors. The government would have to remove the fuel subsidy immediately, even if the transporters paralyze the country, and Leonidas Iza is on fire. The economy would have to adapt to lower foreign exchange income, which requires a drastic reduction in imports, which is achieved by contracting the economy. The population would lose purchasing power, companies would close, jobs would be destroyed, and capital would flee from a country that decided on self-destruction.

All this deserves a broad national debate. But it won’t be. The consultation will go unnoticed because the Electoral Council, claiming it will save $40 million, has proposed holding the consultation until the general election. And the CC approved it without hesitation.

Gentlemen, presidential candidates, do everything to lose the election. The next president will be a receiver. With this query, whoever wins loses. (OR)