On April 13, NOOA, the American Inamhi, announced the probability of the presence of El Niño starting in June and lasting until the first quarter of 2024. The European Meteorological Office portal predicted that it would be comparable to those of 1982-83 and 1997-98. If that Child happens, in sixty days it would bring about the collapse of the infrastructure damaged by the April rains and the devastation of the crops that are already suffering the consequences of the floods.

CAF found that the damage caused by El Niño in 1997-98 represented close to 15% of GDP, loss of production 9.5% of GDP, and loss of capital equivalent to 7% of gross investment in fixed capital. Almost all the damage was on the coast. It was a great influence on health. Sea level rise and flooding clogged storm sewer systems, destroyed water collection and treatment systems, and the wastewater treatment system collapsed. Dry riverbeds became mighty rivers, sweeping away homes thoughtlessly settled in them.

CAF notes that almost all roads along the coast have sustained significant damage. Those that pass near the sea or rivers are undermined. 19 bridges were destroyed, and another 57 have different degrees of damage. In El Niño 82-83, the waters washed away bridges on highways to the coast and Machala. Has the road infrastructure been rebuilt to withstand this type of repeated attack?

The manufacturing sector is the most affected. Thousands of hectares of rice, bananas, coffee, cocoa trees, sugar cane and soybeans were lost, cattle died that could not be evacuated in time. Lands that were covered with thick layers of mud remained unusable for agriculture. Exports fell, and food had to be imported. Economic growth expectations for 1997 were reduced by 0.8 percentage points, from 2.0% to 1.2%.

What is appropriate is that the central government, prefectures, municipalities and the assembly cooperate in preparing for this onslaught of nature. But prefectures and mayors where there was no re-election, as is the case in Guayaquil, are without a head. The assembly is interested in the removal of the president, even though it creates chaos in the country. And the central government must pay attention to the defense against defenestration attempts when it needs to invest all its forces in suppressing a possible occurrence.

As El Niño tears us apart, the country will be plunged into a political crisis: if there is a death on the cross, with a Government fighting to be re-elected. If Lasso is fired, we will be left with no direction and correísmo trying to subdue or drive Borrero to take control of the country. And if Lasso succeeds in his impeachment, he will be hounded by the militant opposition that controls the other branches of the state. The CPCCS and the Judicial Council will follow the instructions coming from Belgium. Violence will continue to create the conditions for a coup. The government would have to deal with the new Iza rebellion.

And we citizens, scourged by El Niño and harassed by crime, will be occasional victims of this desire to throw the mandate from the polls on February 7, 2021 into the trash can and take over power. Or will civil society react? (OR)