There are many negative and positive factors in the internal and external environment. But right now we tend to focus (almost) only on the negative. I suggest a little exercise. I will present a list of (commented on) various topics; The others will be missed, no doubt, but you can put your positive or negative check. Forward…

The price of oil in Ecuador. in 2020 it was 35 dollars per barrel; 2021 USD 60; in 2022, more or less $90; and in 2023 it will be below $80 ($65, $75?). Deposits in the financial system (banks and cooperatives) grew by 20% per year; now we are still at 10%. And credit, about 5 more points. Uncertainty? The influence of the drug economy. Exports rose to a record high in 2022, surpassing $30,000 million (26,000 million in 2021), mainly due to booming shrimp farming (more than $7,000 million) and mining (close to $3,000 million). In 2023 we will be below $30 billion, but still well above that. Is a strong El Niño like 1982 or 1998 coming soon? Cotopaxi? Remittances increased from 3,000 to 4,500 million dollars. We are making progress in trade agreements with China, South Korea, Panama, Costa Rica, Canada, possibly the United States, which increases trade opportunities (export more and import more). Politics in Ecuador is bad, and getting worse. The dollar, after being very strong (example: almost 5100 Colombian pesos to the dollar), is now at more reasonable levels (4500 pesos). International interest rates have risen sharply and there is still some time left, but it is estimated that they could fall by 2024. Many prices in the world have fallen after very high peaks in 2022: food, container shipping, aluminum, etc. . Inflation is slowing down. Geopolitical risks and multiple confrontations are still present in the world. Country risk according to 2,000 points; It can drop, but not less than 1000 points.

And more… We continue without promoting mining and oil (responsible) and we do not stop illegal mining. Adequate employment in 33% of the economically active population, and will not grow from 35% or 36%. In 2022, around 150,000 Ecuadorians are said to have migrated. And in 2023? Aggregate consumption has already exceeded the level of 2019, before the pandemic, while the level of investment is still below. Will we be able to agree on reforms such as labor or social security? Poverty and extreme poverty fell from 48% to 33%. Fiscal accounts are balanced, debt is reduced and there is external support to finance liquidity needs.

The subsidy for imported fuels amounted to 300 million dollars per month in 2022, and will be smaller in 2023: 200/250 million per month. Rising interest rates in Ecuador. Solid level of international reserves: around 8,000 million. Inflation in Ecuador continues to fall, at 2% in 2023, one of the lowest in the world. The economy grew by 3% in 2022 and we will be around 2.5% in 2023. Ecuador is among the 20% of countries with a demographic bonus: two thirds of the population is between 16 and 65: when people invest the most, innovate, strive, etc.

… And draw your own conclusions, please. (OR)