Ecuador’s statistical system is going through its worst moment in history. Public statistics are the catalyst of state capacity. If the ruler does not have updated, legitimate and accurate data, it affects his function. If we pay attention to the very poor state of public statistics, the limited ability to manage should not surprise us. Let’s look at some examples.

Regarding unemployment and underemployment, the state does not have data that reflect reality. INEC changed the definition of underemployment several years ago, which caused the indicator to deflate by 20 points. Today, reports describing the country are almost easily assumed to be true. According to these reports, unemployment hovers around 5%, but little attention is paid to underemployment. If underemployment were calculated using realistic methodologies, it would reach 45%, which, along with 5% unemployment, represents half of the labor market. If they knew that 50% of the labor market is in trouble, they might make different decisions.

Ecuador, last call

Bosses’ salaries fell by 1.1 percent in November, and women’s job applications also decreased

Another problem is poverty. In order to measure this phenomenon correctly, a high-quality population census is needed. The failure of the 2022 census is obvious to all. Complaints of mismanagement are countless. Errors include mistreatment of enumerators, methodological errors, and improvisation. To give a couple of examples, there is evidence that in certain cases the census was carried out via WhatsApp, in other cases residents were enumerated to replace absentees. Complaints include political rejection of all tendencies. The National Assembly, with the votes of all political parties, including the ruling bloc, unanimously voted for a conclusion demanding two urgent revisions. Who could rule with data of this quality?

Resetting this (…) situation is not easy. This includes rethinking the mechanisms of control and technical oversight of INEC.

What happens if I have not done the INEC online census?

In the case of child malnutrition, the Government’s flagship project, INEC disseminated information on unrealistic indicators, which are highly dependent on diffusion factors. Without going into technical details, internal political decisions have been published with distorted information. The disaster caused external audits that INEC does not allow access to. Entities such as Unicef, PAHO and the Ministry of Health should monitor and make transparent these decisions that go beyond sporadic field visits. How to assess malnutrition if audits cannot be transparent?

There are other red flag areas. Income and expenditure surveys, essential for inflation indicators, will undergo serious changes in their calendar. Data on insecurity no longer have inter-institutional coordination. Difficulties in making decisions about security, malnutrition, poverty or unemployment should not be surprising if the statistics suffer from structural problems. Reassembling this sad situation is not easy. This includes rethinking the mechanisms of control and technical oversight of INEC. If no one audits his management, his decisions are based on the criteria of political survival. Another option is to trust the discredited system and continue to rule blindly. (OR)