A slow-motion coup d’état is underway, a pincer that wants to crush and break the Government. The bond is the Assembly, in the hands of Correísm; and the other, the street, in the hands of Leonida Iza.

The Assembly proposes the dismissal of Guillermo Lasso for crimes against state security, failure to report drug trafficking and illicit enrichment. A grotesque accusation, because there is no evidence, and a cynical one: which government seizes the most drugs? And on the other hand, who eliminated the control of the drug trade from the Manta base? Who allowed the FARC a base on national territory and was accused of having his campaign financed by that guerrilla? Which political force brings ganga to the Assembly? Which president was sentenced to eight years in prison for commanding a criminal structure?

The majority position of constitutional defenders is that the Constitutional Court will not approve the impeachment, because the reasons used are not in accordance with the Constitution. The most important link is Leonid Iza.

The leader of Conaie prepares a new attack. Members of the assembly close to him, in alliance with the Koreistas and the PSC, proposed intimidating the forces of order by criticizing Patricio Carrillo, who was an excellent interior minister, on February 23 for curbing the worst excesses of the 2022 Rebellion. Behind the bill that the police will not to suppress a new rebellion, as they did not in 2019 and 2022.

Doubly cynical allies. Iza would not dare stand up against Correa.

Doubly cynical allies. Iza would not dare stand up against Correa. As president, Rafael Correa did not tolerate excesses, brought order to the Amazon and stopped the looting of oil facilities. León Febres-Cordero broke Alfaro Vive and Ecuador did not have to put up with guerrillas like Colombia and Peru. Today, the followers of both condemn the minister who, if he had served Correa or Febres-Cordera, the president would have blamed for a soft hand.

Last June, the Government’s strategy to surrender to Iza and sit at the table to process his demands, initially 10, but which multiplied to 218, failed. Despite the fact that the Government is fulfilling it, Iza declares itself dissatisfied and calls for Lasso’s ouster.

If the scenario of last June repeats itself, the forces of order do not control the excesses and the Lasso loses control, the Assembly would again come into play, playing a secondary role to Iza’s role. The assembly will launch another impeachment attempt, this time citing the shock caused by the rebellion. This reason does not require a statement from the Constitutional Court. In this way, the Assembly would give the coup d’état a light of constitutionality.

Will Lasso be willing to stand his ground or allow himself to be bullied again? If he could not stop the uprising, the president would foresee removal by death on the cross as a last resort. The country would be in a worse political crisis than in 1999, with democracy on the brink and the market economy threatened with death.

The best scenario is that the president leads a determined fight in the Parliament and on the streets. No more lukewarm water. That civil society and democratic political forces support it. (OR)